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Spreadex Market Update

Wednesday, July 15, 2015 - Evening Market Update
Connor Campbell - Market Analyst at Spreadex

Promise of positive Greek parliament progress, whilst Yellen hawkish(ish) in testimony

Whilst the resignation of both the deputy Greek finance minister and finance ministry secretary general hardly points to a unified Syriza party, Tsipras is still expected to be able to pass the Greek deal in parliament this evening despite the very vocal opponents in his government. The finance bridge, meanwhile, still hasn’t been confirm despite the looming ECB repayment next Monday; incidentally, the €7 billion EFSM bridge that has been the most persistently mentioned source of funding wouldn’t actually cover the €12 billion in payments Greece has in the new couple of months. Regardless, the promise of positive progress in the Greek parliament has left the DAX and CAC slightly higher than they were at the start of the day, if not by much.

An afternoon of strong US data, including PPI, Empire State manufacturing, capacity utilization and industrial production, the scene was set for Janet Yellen’s testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee. In her prepared speech, Yellen pointed to the continual issues in regards to labour market contentions, the underperformance of inflation in relation to its long-term targets and the still-present threats of Greece and China to the global economic landscape as the factors involved in the central bank’s decision.

However, the Fed chair importantly reiterated that rates should rise in 2015 if inflation and labour market conditions improve; much of the same rhetoric that has been present for the past few months, then, and little in the way of the clarity investors are aching for. Yet it also leaves a potential lift-off in September (or December) on the cards, and was enough to give the dollar a little bump (if not a particularly impressive one), leaving the Dow Jones fairly flat in the process.

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The Trading Day and Week Ahead

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