Andrew Mount's Racing Tips - 20.12.24

Andrew found 8-1 (40p Rule4) Southwell winner LINE OF FORCE yesterday and has two recommendations at Dundalk and Wolverhampton on Friday, December 20th.

DUNDALK 6.15

MEPHISTO is hardly a win machine, scoring just three times from 51 career starts, but his all-weather record holds up to close inspection. Gerard Keane’s seven-year-old has only had four runs at Dundalk over tonight’s 2m trip, recording form figures of 1210 (2-4), with the runner-up effort by just three-quarters of a length when sent off at 10-1 (he was 12-1 and 5-1 for the wins). The ‘duck egg’ came at odds of 33-1 last February when in need of the run after 166 days off the track. He’s had something of an unorthodox preparation for tonight’s race – he finished down the field when 66-1 for a beginners’ chase at Tramore last month – but the return to the saddle of Colin Keane is a signal of intent. The Champion Jockey has a fine recent record at Dundalk in races over 1m4f or further, scoring on 27 of his 131 mounts (20.6% strike-rate) since the beginning of 2019 for a profit of £22.07 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 18.18, A/E = 1.48), including form figures on Mephisto of 4421 (1-4). Buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or take a fixed odds price, each-way.

Recommendation: Back MEPHISTO on Dundalk 6.15

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30

Chelmsford’s meeting on December 5th produced a very strong track bias, favouring horses ridden patiently, especially the ones who challenged wide. The Racing Post close-up comments for the nine winners that night were as follows…

In rear

Midfield

Slowly away, towards rear

In rear

Midfield

Towards rear, raced wide home turn

In rear

Midfield

Prominent

We’ve already seen two of the patiently-ridden winners beaten since, including Hiatus (a 4-1 last of seven at Chelmsford a week later) who was highlighted as one to oppose in this column. Tonight, it’s the turn of PROFITMAN (“in rear”) who won the 7f Class 6 handicap from stall 9 of 11 (non-runner adjusted). He looked flattered at Chelmsford and while the return to Tapeta won’t be a problem for this course and distance winner, his stall 12 of 12 draw and the likely absence of a strong early pace could be. Sell in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market. Fixed odds punters might want to side with ROB’S UMBRELLA, who finished second to Profitman in that Chelmsford contest despite making the running on the ‘dead’ inside ail.

Recommendation: Oppose PROFITMAN in Wolverhampton 6.30