Andrew Mount's Racing Tips - 27.09.24

Andrew found 13-2 Newmarket scorer SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT on Thursday and has three recommended bets/trades on Friday, September 27th.

HAYDOCK 1.43

KAMANIKA finished well held in a 1m Newmarket handicap on her belated reappearance last month and could only finish tenth of 15 when returned to her optimum 1m2f trip at Goodwood next time. However, both those runs came on officially good going and Joseph Parr’s four-year-old has always been best in the mud. Her full record on officially soft or heavy going stands at 9144110 (3-7) for a profit of £11.25 to a £1 level stake at SP, improving to 14411 (3-5) in Class 5 or lower company (+£13.25). She runs over 1m2f in Class 5 apprentice handicap company today and can bounce back to winning ways. Buy at 19 in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price (7-2).

Recommendation: Back KAMANIKA in Haydock 1.43

LISTOWEL 2.40

LORD ERSKINE will be 12 on his next birthday but the veteran can usually be relied upon to run his race when the mud is flying, especially in the autumn months. He’s won just twice from 23 starts on officially good to soft or faster going (Flat and jumps combined) but is nine from 37 on anything slower for a profit of £89.85 to a £1 level stake at SP. He made the frame on another nine occasions and will appreciate running in a big-field handicap hurdle on soft going after finishing last of three in a good-ground conditions hurdle at Galway earlier this month. Buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or take a fixed odds price (18-1 at the time of writing).

Recommendation: Back LORD ERSKINE in Listowel 2.40

HAYDOCK 2.50

The William Haggas-trained SUPERMODEL is currently trading at 15-18 in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market for this 7f novice contest but if she takes after her yard’s other Night Of Thunder newcomers she’s going to improve for the outing. Even Economics got beaten on his debut and Haggas’s full record with debutants from this sire reads 4584034605 (0-10), including even-money shot Waleefy who was only third at Lingfield. Andrew Balding’s SIENA’S STAR, a daughter of Churchill, is also likely to need the run and it looks best to concentrate on those with previous racecourse experience. The best option could be David O’Meara’s RYKA, successful at Thirsk on her debut before finding the step up to Group 3 company against her when last of seven on soft ground at Goodwood. I’m happy to blame the steep class rise rather than the going for that defeat, as her breeding (she’s also by Night Of Thunder and her dam was a soft-ground winner) suggests that she’ll have no problems in the mud. Buy at 25 in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price (5-2).

Recommendation: Back RYKA in Haydock 2.50

Please note that these are examples of winning bets from the past week, and it is important to remember that spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses larger than your initial stake/deposit.