Ballon d'Or 2026 Odds: Who Will Win the Ballon d'Or?

Written by Yaro Pavlenko

Last Updated: 23 September 2026

The 2026 Ballon d'Or shortlist is out, and the odds have England captain and Bayern Munich talisman Harry Kane heading the list as a strong favourite at 3/5 after a season that brought 73 goals (so far) for club and country — a return that has left the rest of the field some distance behind.

Barcelona's Spanish winger Lamine Yamal is next in the betting odds at 5/2, with Real Madrid's French phenom Kylian Mbappé at 9/1. Legendary Argentine Lionel Messi is 14/1 for a ninth award at the grand old age of 39, with Rodri, who returns to contention after a Golden Ball-winning World Cup with Spain, at 16/1.

Perhaps the most striking price belongs to Ousmane Dembélé. The reigning winner is out to 100/1, despite Paris Saint-Germain placing 10 of the 30 names on the shortlist. Dembélé has himself pointed to teammate Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, a 28/1 shot, as PSG's best hope this year.

There is no place for Portuguese icon Cristiano Ronaldo, while Messi's inclusion for this year is his 17th nomination in total, still one short of generational rival Ronaldo's record.

When Is the 2026 Ballon d'Or Ceremony?

The 2026 Ballon d'Or will be awarded on Monday 26 October.

For the first time since 2019 the event moves away from the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris. It heads to London, in recognition of Stanley Matthews, the Blackpool and England forward who became the first Ballon d'Or winner in 1956.

Seven awards are handed out on the night: the men's and women's Ballon d'Or, the Kopa Trophy for the best under-21 player, the Yashin Trophy for the best goalkeeper, and the Coach and Club of the Year prizes in both the men's and women's game.

How Is the Ballon d'Or Decided?

By a vote of football journalists, one from each of the top 100 nations in the FIFA world rankings for the men's award, and the top 50 for the women's.

Each journalist submits a top 10 from the 30-player shortlist. Points are awarded on a weighted scale, with a first-place vote worth considerably more than a tenth-place vote, and the player with the highest total wins.

Voters are asked to judge three things: individual performances and standout quality over the season, team performances and trophies won, and the player's class and fair play. The shortlists themselves are drawn up by France Football's editorial team in consultation with a group of experts.

One detail that shapes the result more than people expect: since 2022 the award has been judged on the season rather than the calendar year. That is why a strong start to 2026-27 counts for nothing here, and why summer tournament form carries so much weight.

Ballon d'Or Odds – 2026 Men's Nominees

Latest prices on the Ballon d'Or 2026 winner market. Correct as of 23 September 2026 and subject to change.

Odds on all 30 nominees are available on the Ballon d'Or 2026 winner market.

Women's Ballon d'Or 2026: Nominees

The women's award is guaranteed a new name on the trophy. Aitana Bonmatí, who has won the last three, has been ruled out by injury, leaving the field open for what would be only the fifth different winner since the prize was introduced in 2018.

Alexia Putellas is the most decorated player on the list with two previous wins, though she now plays for London City Lionesses after leaving Barcelona in the summer. Barcelona's strongest candidate is striker Ewa Pajor, with Patri Guijarro and Caroline Graham Hansen also nominated. Melchie Dumornay of OL Lyonnes, Bayern Munich's Pernille Harder and Manchester City's Khadija Shaw are all expected to feature near the top.

Barcelona (6): Ewa Pajor, Patri Guijarro, Caroline Graham Hansen, Clàudia Pina, Cata Coll, Esmee Brugts

Manchester City (5): Khadija Shaw, Vivianne Miedema, Alex Greenwood, Yui Hasegawa, Kerstin Casparij

OL Lyonnes (3): Melchie Dumornay, Selma Bacha, Wendie Renard

Bayern Munich (3): Pernille Harder, Klara Bühl, Momoko Tanikawa

Arsenal (2): Alessia Russo, Mariona Caldentey

Elsewhere: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona/London City Lionesses), Mapi León (Barcelona/London City Lionesses), Caroline Weir (Real Madrid/OL Lyonnes), Melvine Malard (Manchester United/Chelsea), Manaka Matsukubo (North Carolina Courage/Chelsea), Tessa Wullaert (Inter Milan/Como), Temwa Chawinga (Kansas City Current), Lorena (Kansas City Current), Rose Lavelle (Gotham FC), Barbra Banda (Orlando Pride), Scarlett Camberos (Club América)

The NWSL has four representatives, led by back-to-back league MVP Temwa Chawinga.

Who Has Won the Most Ballon d'Ors?

Lionel Messi, with eight. No one else is close. Ronaldo lags behind on five, an absurd stat considering the Portuguese icon is still a clear two ahead of anyone else. 

Could Messi make history and extend his lead with a ninth award in the twilight of a glittering career?

Five players share two wins each: Alfredo Di Stéfano, Franz Beckenbauer, Kevin Keegan, Karl-Heinz Rummenigge and the Brazilian Ronaldo.

One piece of trivia worth knowing: Lev Yashin remains the only goalkeeper ever to win it, back in 1963. The goalkeeping award now carries his name.

Who Won the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ousmane Dembélé, after a season in which PSG swept Ligue 1, the Coupe de France and the Champions League. He arrives at this year's ceremony as the reigning champion, though the market makes him a 100/1 chance to retain it.

Lamine Yamal finished second and PSG midfielder Vitinha was third.

Aitana Bonmatí won the women's award for a third year running. Gianluigi Donnarumma took the Yashin Trophy but has not been nominated this time.

How Many Times Has Messi Won the Ballon d'Or?

Eight — more than anyone in the history of the award.

He won four in a row between 2009 and 2012, which was itself a record, then added a fifth in 2015. Wins in 2019, 2021 and 2023 followed, the last of those after Argentina's World Cup victory in Qatar.

A note on the record: from 2010 to 2015 the prize merged with FIFA's World Player of the Year to become the FIFA Ballon d'Or. Those years still count towards Messi's total.

How Many Times Has Ronaldo Won the Ballon d'Or?

Five. His first came in 2008 with Manchester United, followed by back-to-back awards at Real Madrid in 2013 and 2014, and another two in 2016 and 2017 after Champions League and Euro 2016 successes.

He has not won since, and is not on the 2026 shortlist — though he holds the record for most nominations, at 18. Will that record ever be broken?

Most Famous Players Never to Win the Ballon d'Or

Some of the game's biggest names have no Ballon d'Or to their name, and in a few cases the rules were the reason.

Pelé and Diego Maradona. Until 1995 the award was restricted to players at European clubs, which left both ineligible for most of their careers. When France Football ran a retrospective exercise in 2016 applying modern criteria, Pelé would have won seven.

Ferenc Puskás. One of the great goalscorers of any era, the Hungarian was runner-up in 1960 but never a winner.

Xavi and Andrés Iniesta. The engine room of the most dominant club and international side of their generation. Iniesta was runner-up in 2010; Xavi finished third three years running. Both lost out to a certain Argentine Barcelona teammate.

Paolo Maldini. Twenty-five years at the top as a defender, five European Cups, no award. Defenders have historically struggled — fellow Italian Fabio Cannavaro in 2006 is the only one to win since 1996, which he won after leading Italy to World Cup glory.

Thierry Henry. Runner-up in 2003 during his peak Arsenal years. The Frenchman is seen as one of the most deserving potential winners in the 2000s era, but alas it was not to be.

Zlatan Ibrahimović. Trophies in four countries, a highlight reel few can match, but the big Swede never finished higher than fourth in the running for this particular award.

Also on the list: Raúl, Franco Baresi, Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard and Neymar, who finished third in both 2015 and 2017.

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