Premier League Predicted Points

Ahead of the 2025/26 Premier League season, we released our annual Premier League Points spread betting market, predicting how many points each of the 20 sides would accumulate by the end of the campaign. Now that we are over halfway through the season, it’s time to assess how accurate those predictions have been, identifying the league’s biggest overachievers and underperformers. We’ll also be revisiting our forecasts with updated projections to see where we now expect all 20 teams to finish by the conclusion of the 2025/26 season.

You can view our Premier League Points spread betting market HERE.

It is important to note Spreadex’s forecast is a live market. Which means club’s forecasted totals can change between now and the end of the season, and good transfer business could improve a team’s outlook. Points predictions in this article are accurate as of 21^st January 2026.

Spread betting carries a high level of risk and can result in losses larger than your initial steak/deposit.

Find every team’s pre-season and updated points forecast below:

Arsenal

Pre-season: 77–79 | Updated: 84–85.5
Arsenal’s heavy investment in the summer transfer window appears to have paid dividends, with the Gunners currently leading the Premier League. Mikel Arteta’s side are seven points clear at the top and look well placed to end their long trophy drought. Arsenal are now projected to outperform their pre-season points projection by +6.75 points, underlining their status as title favourites.

Manchester City

Pre-season: 77–79 | Updated: 76–77.5
By their lofty standards, Manchester City have endured a difficult campaign and are projected to go a second consecutive season without lifting the Premier League trophy. Sitting seven points behind Arsenal, City attempted to close the gap with January signings Marc Guehi and Antoine Semenyo. Despite this, Pep Guardiola’s side are still projected to underperform their pre-season expectations by -1.25 points.

Aston Villa

Pre-season: 56.5–58.5 | Updated: 65.5–67
Aston Villa have been one of the standout overperformers this season. Unai Emery’s side currently sit third in the league and are firmly on course for Champions League qualification. While we don’t expect Villa to sustain a title challenge, they are projected to comfortably secure third place and outperform their pre-season projection by a significant +8.75 points.

Liverpool

Pre-season: 77.5–79.5 | Updated: 64.5–66
Liverpool entered the season as title favourites following major signings such as Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak. However, defending their crown has proven difficult. With key players underperforming and Arne Slot’s tactics coming under scrutiny, Liverpool are now projected to narrowly secure Champions League football while underperforming their pre-season projection by a substantial -13.25 points.

Chelsea

Pre-season: 65.5–67.5 | Updated: 61–62.5
After winning the Club World Cup, expectations were high for Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea side. However, tensions between the manager and the board, coupled with an injury to talisman Cole Palmer, have seen the Blues slip to sixth. While we expect Chelsea to finish fifth, they are still projected to underperform their pre-season expectations by -4.75 points.

Manchester United

Pre-season: 57–59 | Updated: 60.5–62
Despite a turbulent season that included the dismissal of Ruben Amorim, Manchester United are projected to exceed expectations. Summer signing Bryan Mbeumo has been their standout performer and is expected to guide United to a sixth-place finish. Overall, United are projected to outperform their pre-season projection by +3.25 points, a major improvement on last season’s 15th-place finish.

Newcastle United

Pre-season: 65–67 | Updated: 57–58.5
Newcastle were expected to challenge for Champions League qualification once again, but balancing domestic and European commitments has taken its toll. Eddie Howe’s side have struggled for consistency and are now projected to finish outside the top five, qualifying only for the Conference League. Newcastle are projected to underperform their pre-season projection by -8.25 points.

Brentford

Pre-season: 42.5–44.5 | Updated: 53–54.5
Many expected Brentford to struggle following Thomas Frank’s departure and the loss of key players such as Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa. Instead, first-time manager Keith Andrews has exceeded all expectations, guiding the Bees to seventh place. Brentford are among the league’s biggest overperformers, exceeding their pre-season projection by a remarkable +10.25 points.

Brighton

Pre-season: 53–55 | Updated: 52–53.5
Brighton have endured an inconsistent campaign, struggling to string together sustained runs of form. Currently 12th, the Seagulls remain within touching distance of the European places and are projected to finish ninth. Despite a late improvement, Brighton are still expected to slightly underperform their pre-season projection by -1.25 points.

Fulham

Pre-season: 45.5–47.5 | Updated: 50.5–52
Fulham have enjoyed another solid season under Marco Silva and currently sit 11th. Much of their success has been driven by Harry Wilson’s contributions in attack. We project Fulham to finish 10th, breaking into the top half and outperforming their pre-season projection by +4.75 points.

Sunderland

Pre-season: 24.5–26.5 | Updated: 49.5–51
Sunderland are the biggest surprise package of the season. Having been promoted via the play-offs, they were widely tipped for relegation. Instead, Régis Le Bris’ side sit ninth, just three points off fourth, aided by standout signings such as Granit Xhaka. Sunderland are outperforming their pre-season projection by a staggering +24.75 points, the largest swing in the league.

Everton

Pre-season: 46–48 | Updated: 49–50.5
Everton have undergone significant change, including a move from Goodison Park to the Hill Dickinson Stadium. Despite this, David Moyes has delivered stability, guiding the Toffees to a respectable mid-table finish. Everton are projected to slightly outperform their pre-season projection by +2.75 points.

Tottenham Hotspur

Pre-season: 55–57 | Updated: 46–47.5
Tottenham are among the season’s biggest underperformers. Following last year’s Europa League triumph, optimism was high under new manager Thomas Frank. However, a dramatic collapse in form has left Spurs down in 14th. They are projected to underperform their pre-season projection by -9.25 points.

Bournemouth

Pre-season: 49–51 | Updated: 46–47.5
Despite losing several key defensive players over the summer, Bournemouth’s pre-season outlook remained positive. However, the January departure of Antoine Semenyo to Manchester City has severely weakened their attack. Bournemouth are now projected to underperform their pre-season expectations by -3.25 points.

Crystal Palace

Pre-season: 45.5–47.5 | Updated: 45.5–47
Crystal Palace entered the season on a high after winning their first major trophy, but the departures of Eberechi Eze and Marc Guehi, alongside Oliver Glasner’s impending exit, have stalled progress. Palace’s updated projection is the closest in the league to their pre-season forecast, with an expected underperformance of just -0.25 points.

Leeds United

Pre-season: 35.5–37.5 | Updated: 44–45.5
Many expected Leeds to struggle, but Daniel Farke’s side have produced an impressive campaign and now sit comfortably clear of relegation. Leeds are among the league’s biggest overperformers and are projected to exceed their pre-season projection by +8.25 points.

Nottingham Forest

Pre-season: 47–49 | Updated: 41–42.5
After finishing seventh last season, Nottingham Forest have endured a dramatic downturn. Two managerial changes have left them hovering just above the relegation zone. While survival is expected, Forest are projected to underperform their pre-season projection by -6.25 points.

West Ham United

Pre-season: 45–47 | Updated: 32–33.5
West Ham have suffered a disastrous campaign. A poor start under Graham Potter led to a managerial change, but Nuno Espírito Santo has been unable to reverse the decline. The Hammers are projected to finish nine points from safety and underperform their pre-season projection by a huge -13.25 points.

Burnley

Pre-season: 28–30 | Updated: 25.5–27
Burnley were expected to struggle on their return to the Premier League, and that prediction has proven accurate. Scott Parker’s side sit 19th and are projected to underperform their pre-season projection by -2.75 points.

Wolves

Pre-season: 40.5–42.5 | Updated: 21.5–23
Wolves are the league’s biggest underperformers. With just one league win all season, a late uptick in form has come too late to change their fate. Despite recent improvement, Wolves are projected to finish bottom of the table and underperform their pre-season projection by a massive -19.25 points.

You can view our Premier League Points spread betting market HERE.