Sports Blog 10/07/2018: FIFA World Cup Semi-Final Preview – France vs Belgium, Tuesday 10th July 2018

Can France give Belgium les bleus when the neighbours meet in Tuesday’s World Cup semi-final, at 7pm on BBC One?

There was a sense of unfulfilled potential about France during the group stages. Though their progress to the next round wasn’t ever really in doubt, they were well short of the attacking masterclass promised by their frontline. They were lucky to get all 3 points against Australia, benefiting from an 81st minute Aziz Behich own goal, while they could only beat Peru 1-0, and suffered a 0-0 stalemate against Denmark.



Yet since then Didier Deschamp’s side have started to open up, their back-to-back South American opponents bringing out the best of the 1998 champions. In the last-16 they were part of arguably the best game of the competition, a 4-3 thriller against Argentina complete with a performance from Kylian Mbappe that likely makes him the frontrunner for the Best Young Player Award. Then, in the quarter-finals, they saw off the tricky Uruguayans, a clean sheet win with goals from Raphael Varane and Antoine Griezmann.

If France didn’t warm up until the knockouts, then Belgium have been going hell for leather since the very beginning. The highest scoring side in the tournament – admittedly benefiting from ‘easier’ group stage opposition like Tunisia and Panama – they’ve netted 14 goals so far, averaging just shy of 3 goals a game. And they have momentum on their side, an excellent attacking performance in the opening 45 minutes in Brazil, and a resilient defensive showing in the 2nd half, sending the country to their first World Cup semi-final since 1986.

Not that they’ve been perfect. They very nearly went out in the last-16, going 2-0 down to Japan just after the interval (before admittedly pulling off an amazing comeback). And they have actually conceded the most goals out of the semi-finalists, their nets bulging 5 times.

There is A LOT of tasty attacking talent in this semi-final. Griezmann has a Super Mega PGM of 35-41, followed by Mbappe at 22-27 and Olivier Giroud – who hasn’t actually had a shot on target –at 20-24. For Roberto Martinez’s side, Romelu Lukaku is the obvious talisman, at 23-28, and could still rival Harry Kane for the Golden Boot, at 17/2.

Both semi-finals are incredibly close to call. However, France are now the overall favourites for the tournament, at an Outright Index spread of 70.5-73.5 and a fixed odds price of 9/5. That, obviously, gives them the edge heading to Saint Petersburg, with Spreadex offering of France/Belgium Goal Supremacy spread of 0-0.2 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.5-2.7.