FA Cup 3rd Round Replay Preview – Southampton vs Derby, Wednesday 16th January 2019

Can Derby ram their way into the FA Cup 4th round by beating Southampton this Wednesday?

While they’re still in the mix for promotion – through the play-offs at least – Derby stumbled their way out of 2018 and into 2019. They may have closed last year with a thrilling 92nd minute, 4-3 victory at Norwich, but before that they had drawn against Nottingham Forest and Bristol, and lost at Sheffield.

New Year’s Day then kicked off 2019 with a 1-1 draw at home to Middlesbrough as Derby failed to capitalise on their 2nd minute opener, while last Friday saw Frank Lampard’s side fail to get anything from Championship leaders Leeds, instead slumping to a 2-0 defeat.

In amongst all that, however, the Rams proved their resilience in the FA Cup. Just after the break they found themselves down 2-0 at home to Southampton, only for goals from Jack Marriott – who sits at a Super Mega PGM of 24-29 – and Thomas Lawrence either side of the hour mark to force a replay.

That draw was the latest in a series of disappointments for the Saints. After being without a league win for 12 games, back-to-back victories over Arsenal and Huddersfield seemed to suggest new manager Ralph Hasenhuttl had got things back up and running at the club. It was something of a misleading spurt, however, 2018 ending with losses at home to West Ham and Man City.

2019 has been, admittedly, a bit better. A goalless draw at Chelsea is nothing to be sniffed at, while they picked up their 4th league win of the season at Leicester over the weekend.

Southampton are heading into Wednesday’s unwelcome distraction with a fairly long absentee list. Charlie Austin, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Yan Valery are suspended, with Ryan Bertrand, Danny Ings and Michael Obafemi all out injured. That leaves Shane Long, who has only scored once in 15 appearances, their best option up front; the Irishman sits at a Super Mega PGM of 29-35.

Despite their issues, the hosts should have enough in them to go through, with Spreadex offering a Southampton/Derby Goal Supremacy spread of 0.65-0.85, alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.85-3.05.