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Can England cap off a stellar 2018 by beating Croatia and securing a place in the Nations League finals, this Sunday at 2pm on Sky Sports Football? Group 1 has ended up being the tightest of League A, with any one of Spain, England or Croatia able to reach the play-offs. It actually could’ve all been decided on Thursday night; Spain would have had it all sewn up with a win in Zagreb (even a draw likely would have done). Instead Tin Jedvaj’s 93rd minute strike secured a 3-2 victory for the beaten World Cup finalists – their first of the competition – sending the group down to the wire. As for England, since losing at Wembley in their Nations League curtain raiser against the Spaniards, they’ve gradually regained whatever confidence was knocked out of them at the end of the World Cup. A mid-September friendly win over Switzerland was then followed by a goalless draw in Croatia, and that impressive 3-2 victory in Seville. Most recently they beat the USA 3-0, a friendly as notable for the freshness of its goalscorers – Jesse Lingard, Trent Alexander-Arnold and a debuting Callum Wilson (who has a Super Mega PGM of 28-33) – as it was for being Wayne Rooney’s 120th, and last, time in an England shirt. With Spain unable to be relegated, there are a few potential outcomes for this weekend’s game. A win for either England or Croatia would send them through to the finals, while condemning the other to League B next time the competition rolls around (that’d be in 2020/21). A draw, however, sees Spain top the group, with the relegated party dependent on whether the game is goalless or not; any non-0-0 stalemate dumps Gareth Southgate and co. into League B due to their head-to-head away goals record against Sunday’s visitors. Aiming to get revenge for their World Cup semi-final heartbreak, the hosts should have the advantage, at an England/Croatia Goal Supremacy spread of 0.5-0.7 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.7-2.9.
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