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Spreadex betting blog

Thursday, October 29, 2015
Connor Campbell - Market Analyst at Spreadex

Sports Blog 29/10/2015: Rugby World Cup Final – New Zealand vs Australia, 31st October 2015

First up, however, is a third-place play-off between South Africa and perhaps the biggest surprise of the tournament (well, barring Japan in the Pool stages) Argentina. The former is arguably more unlucky not to be in the final than the latter, but regardless their meeting on Friday should see this World Cup’s fantastic run of matches continue. Our traders fancy a consolation-win for the Springboks, offering a South Africa/Argentina Points Supremacy spread of 8-11; though, as Ireland found out, the Pumas are more than tough enough to play with the big boys, so there could yet be one more surprise in store.

Rugby World Cup Outright Index Spreads October 29th

Turning to the final and, from a neutral’s point of view, it’s a doozy. It’s the two giants of the rugby world, both with 2 world titles to their name; the pre-tournament favourites All Blacks versus a still-ascendant, and revolutionised, Wallabies. For New Zealand victory would see them become the first side to win back-to-back titles in the history of the tournament; for Australia winning the whole thing would cap off a remarkable resurgence under Michael Cheika that as recent as year ago was almost unthinkable.

At 4/11 odds on favourites to lift the trophy, New Zealand go into the final as top dog, a position that haven’t shown any real signs of relinquishing from the get-go. Whilst the toughness of Australia’s Pool doesn’t compare to the relatively easy time of it the All Blacks had against the likes of Georgia, Tonga and Namibia, Steven Hansen’s side have arguably have the harder path to the final since then. A replay of the 2011 final in the quarter finals showed the gulf that has opened up between New Zealand and France, the former winning 62-13 to set up semi-final against South Africa. That match was to be the site of the All Blacks’ greatest wobble since their opener against Australia, and they went into the 2nd half trailing by 5 points, only to claw back, and hold onto, a 2 point lead for the final 12 minutes of the match.

Rugby World Cup Tournament Spreads October 29th

In many ways the statistics speak for themselves. With 8 to his name Julian Savea is the top tryscorer of the tournament so far, and will likely remain so unless Argentina’s Juan Imhoff, South Africa’s Bryan Habana or teammate Nehe Milner-Skudder can score 4 tries in their final respective games. And on 21 conversions from the All Blacks’ 36 tries (the highest total in the tournament) Dan Carter is far and away the best post-try kicker, something that has seen him become the All Blacks’ all-time points scorer at the World Cup.

Yet it would be dangerous to exaggerate Australia’s position as underdogs, sitting at 2/1 to lift the trophy ahead of the final. They managed to escape the proverbial Pool of DeathTM at the top of the group, beating England (at their own tournament no less), Wales, Fiji and, less impressively, Uruguay in the process. They then managed to hold off a ferocious Scotland in one of the closest games of the competition, an 80th minute penalty from the fantastic Bernard Foley giving them a 35-34 victory to set up a semi-final against Argentina. Kicking off proceedings with the fastest try in the entire tournament from Adam Ashley-Cooper, who went on to get 2 more before the end of the match, the Aussies won 29-15 to set up their historic meeting with New Zealand.

If one thing is guaranteed, it is that Saturday’s final is going to be super-charged affair. It will likely be the last international for All Blacks captain Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith and Keven Mealamu. It will also take place a year and 9 days since Cheika took over at the helm of the Wallabies, completing one of the quickest turnarounds in the sport’s history. Both teams have been brilliant in what has been a hugely entertaining competition, and the final is almost too hard to call; our Spreadex traders and clients alike, however, have plumped for the All Blacks to achieve gold, offering a New Zealand/Australia Points Supremacy spread of 4-7.

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