Market Analysis
Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 02/02/26
Monday 02 February
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | 
|
PMI Manufacturing | 51.5 | 51.5 | ||
| 06:30 | 
|
ILO Unemployment Rate |
|
7.7% | ||
| 07:00 | 
|
Retail Sales Month on Month |
|
-0.6% | 0.2% | +0.1% |
| 07:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
1.1% | 1.1% | +1.5% |
| 07:00 | 
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
-0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 08:45 | 
|
PMI Manufacturing | 47.9 | 47.9 | 48.1 | |
| 08:50 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 51.0 | 51.0 | 51.2 | |
| 08:55 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 48.7 | 48.7 | 49.1 | |
| 09:00 | 
|
PMI Manufacturing | 49.4 | 49.4 | 49.5 | |
| 09:30 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 51.6 | 51.6 | 51.8 | |
| 13:30 | 
|
Housing Starts |
|
1.246Mln | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month | 0.5% | |||
| 13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month | 0.6% | 0.5% | ||
| 14:00 |
|
Factory Orders |
|
2.7% | ||
| 14:30 | 
|
PMI Manufacturing | 48.6 | 50.4 | ||
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
|
47.9 | 48.5 | 52.6 |
Tuesday 03 February
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:30 | 
|
RBA Cash Rate |
|
3.60% | 3.85% | 3.85% |
| 06:30 |
|
ILO Unemployment Rate |
|
7.7% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Year on Year (nsa) |
|
2.7% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Housing Starts |
|
1.246Mln | ||
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Month on Month (sa) |
|
0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month | 0.5% | |||
| 13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month | 0.6% | 0.5% | ||
| 14:00 |
|
Factory Orders |
|
2.7% |
Wednesday 04 February
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 |
|
ILO Unemployment Rate |
|
7.7% | ||
| 08:45 |
|
PMI Services | 51.5 | 51.4 | 52.9 | |
| 08:50 |
|
PMI Services | 47.9 | 47.9 | 48.4 | |
| 08:55 |
|
PMI Services | 53.3 | 53.3 | 52.4 | |
| 09:00 |
|
PMI Services | 51.9 | 51.9 | 51.6 | |
| 09:00 |
|
PMI Composite | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.3 | |
| 09:30 |
|
PMI Services | 54.3 | 54.3 | 54.0 | |
| 10:00 |
|
PPI Year on Year |
|
-1.7% | -2.3% | -2.1% |
| 10:00 |
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
0.5% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| 13:15 |
|
ADP employment report |
|
41k | 48k | 22k |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Year on Year (nsa) |
|
2.7% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Month on Month (sa) |
|
0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders |
|
57.9 | 53.1 | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
|
54.4 | 53.5 | 53.8 |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Prices Paid |
|
64.3 | 66.6 | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Business Activity |
|
56.0 | 57.4 | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Employment |
|
52.0 | 52.3 | 50.3 |
| 15:30 |
|
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -2.295Mln | 0.489Mln | -3.455Mln |
Thursday 05 February
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 |
|
ILO Unemployment Rate |
|
7.7% | ||
| 07:45 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month | -0.1% | 0.2% | -0.7% | |
| 09:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) |
|
1.30% | +0.9% | |
| 09:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) |
|
0.50% | -0.8% | |
| 10:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month |
|
0.2% | -0.2% | -0.5% |
| 10:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
2.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Cut | 5 | 2 | 4 | |
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Hike | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Cut | 5 | 2 | 4 | |
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Unchanged | 4 | 7 | 5 | |
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Hike | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12:00 |
|
BoE Rate Decision |
|
3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 12:00 |
|
BoE Rate Decision |
|
3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Unchanged | 4 | 7 | 5 | |
| 13:15 |
|
ECB Rate Decision |
|
2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% |
| 13:15 |
|
ECB Rate Decision |
|
2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% |
Friday 06 February
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 |
|
ILO Unemployment Rate |
|
7.7% | 7.8% | |
| 07:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
13.1Bln EU | 14.1Bln EU | +17.1Bln EU |
| 07:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month |
|
0.8% | -0.3% | -1.9% |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index UK (Halifax) |
|
-0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 07:45 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-4.170Bln EU | -4.843Bln EU | |
| 13:30 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% |
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