Top Forex & CFD Movers of Q4

The final quarter of last year saw some significant volatility across CFD instruments such as gold, the yen, and commodity currencies, setting the scene for the new year.

The Biggest Movers

• Precious metals remained the top-performing CFD asset during Q4, as gold returned to a record high amid holiday trading.
• Equity performance was characterised by a shift to value stocks in Q4, a potential sign of an accelerating rotation out of AI-driven tech.
• The yen was among the most volatile of the major currencies last year, losing against the dollar despite the BOJ raising rates.
• WTI declined considerably in Q4 due to developments surrounding a Ukraine peace deal that remains unresolved to date.

CFD Risers and Fallers of Q4 2025

2025 was a year of surprises for the market, resulting in atypical performance. However, by the end of the year, many of the usual market trends had reasserted themselves, and the typical October-December growth spurt came about, with equity indices ending the year at or near record highs. Overall, stock markets posted solid gains, with AI-driven tech leading the way. Nonetheless, unlike previous years, growth stocks gave way to a broadening market, with emerging markets taking the lead. In the fourth quarter, commodities became the market's primary focus, with precious metals and copper rising and crude prices falling. The precious metals index rose 80.2% last year, outpacing tech equities, which returned 33%. Value stocks overtook growth stocks in the fourth quarter (3.5% vs 2.8% growth), potentially indicating an accelerated rotation out of tech that could continue into the new year. Going in the other direction was crude, which fell 7% through the fourth quarter, with Brent falling to lows not seen since 2021. There was considerable optimism that Russia and Ukraine could reach a peace deal, but the situation remains unresolved.

Japan stood out in Q4, as the Nikkei rocketed higher while the yen weakened even as the BOJ raised rates. Japan's currency was by far the weakest among the majors last year, as investors bet that the new Prime Minister's spending policies would mean reflation. At the same time, high debt levels would prevent the central bank from raising rates quickly. The Nikkei broke above 50K and returned 15% during the quarter. Meanwhile, the yen lost 3.9% against the dollar over the same period, which is remarkable given that the greenback declined.

Monetary Policy Divergence Drives Currency Pairs

One of the primary beneficiaries of the weaker dollar was the euro, which gained 13.5% last year, its best performance in eight years. In part, that was explained by the ECB keeping rates unchanged while the Fed resumed its rate-cutting cycle. This situation is expected to continue next year, with the market pricing in a 50-50 chance of a Fed rate cut in the first quarter, while the ECB is projected to remain on hold for the rest of the year. Commodity currencies also managed gains against the dollar, with the AUDUSD rising 1.5% in the final quarter of last year after the RBA took on a more hawkish tone. Easing geopolitical tensions after the US and China signed a trade deal in late October helped bolster commodities. The CAD was the second-best performer among the majors in Q4, finding a floor after declines earlier in the year, following the BOC's effective termination of its rate-cutting cycle. Now the focus turns to USMCA negotiations that could end the trade war between Canada and the US.