Top March Forex & CFD Movers

March has so far seen a significant increase in volatility as markets are roiled by the situation in the Middle East, but some clear trends have emerged. For traders looking for some insight into the market outlook for April, here are the biggest risers and fallers in the final month of Q1:

Top March Forex Risers & Fallers

• Dollar: +2.2%
• Brent: +43%
• Gold: -15%
• NZD: -3.2%
• Copper: -7.8%
• Silver: -24.3%

Key Themes For the New Market Situation

The US-Israeli bombing campaign (and increasing rumours of a ground invasion) has created a significant amount of uncertainty for markets, which caused volatility to double in March.

The main focus of traders shifted from tariffs and economic growth to the potential impact of inflation, while currencies contended with the war's disparate effects across economies. Asian markets crashed, gold crossed into a bear market, the dollar affirmed its safe-haven status, and now traders worry that Europe's growth spurt will be stifled by higher interest rates and energy costs.

The Forex world going into April is very different from what it was a month ago. Here are some of the main driving forces behind the top Forex movers last month:

Brent Rises on Supply Shock

Crude has been among the most volatile assets, as to be expected given the situation in the Middle East. Brent has fluctuated much more than WTI, leading to the widest gap between the two in 11 years. Its price swung as much as 90%, from $70 per barrel at the end of February to almost $115 at one point, before falling back to $84 as recently as Tuesday. However, Brent has been climbing towards $110 since Iran appeared to reject the White House's overtures to end the war.

Dollar Up and Gold Down

Gold has been one of the biggest losers of the war, having fallen 15% this month to just over $4,400 per ounce and as low as $4,000 at one point. Part of that can be explained by dramatic drops in stock markets in Asia, the largest gold-buying region, which forced some liquidation of the asset. But one of the main drivers is also what's boosting the dollar: the expectation that interest rates will rise. Markets went from pricing in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year to now expecting no cuts and an almost 30% chance of a hike. Traders worry that higher crude prices will raise inflation, forcing the Fed's hand.

Kiwi Suffers From Lack of Fuel

Most currencies lost ground against the dollar, but one of the worst underperformers was the NZD. This is in contrast with its sister AUD, which has lost ground to the greenback, but the recent hike by the RBA has helped stem the decline. The problem for New Zealand is that it imports all of its petroleum and has dwindling reserves amid the supply crisis. Economists speculate that the price increases could choke the island nation's tepid economic recovery.

The Energy Transition on Hold?

Two other notable commodities that have moved substantially this month are silver and copper. The former often dovetails with gold as a more accessible store of value but is also a key industrial component in the green energy revolution since it's primarily used in solar panels. Copper would also be another energy transition asset that would outperform amid an oil crisis. However, the world's largest buyer is China, which is also the world's largest importer of Gulf-sourced crude. The Chinese economy could be among the most affected by the crisis, denting demand for industrial metals like copper and contributing to a decline in silver as well.