Spreadex Market Update
Trump’s 48hr ‘Iran Countdown’ Sends Markets Lower Again
The dollar moved higher early on Monday after Donald Trump gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on power infrastructure. Iran responded with threats against regional energy and water facilities, while oil held firm and gold came under renewed pressure, falling to a 4 month low. Wall Street had already closed sharply lower on Friday and looks set to track a lower open for European stocks.
Equities
The FTSE 100 closed 1.4% lower on Friday, extending its losing run to a third straight session and marking a third consecutive weekly decline. The FTSE 250 also finished Friday down 1%, as London equities stayed under pressure into the weekend.
Standout moves came from Smiths Group and JD Wetherspoon after updates tied directly to trading performance. Smiths Group closed 9.8% lower on Friday, its steepest one-day fall since 2021, after the engineering company missed half-year organic revenue forecasts.
JD Wetherspoon fell 10.6% by Friday’s close after saying full-year profit could come in below market expectations. The pub chain said first-half profit dropped 37% as higher energy costs and wage-related taxes weighed on the business.
SAerospace and defence stocks fell 2.5% on Friday, while banking shares lost 2%, putting the heaviest drag on the FTSE 100. British energy stocks slipped 1.7% on the day, although they remained around record-high levels.
The Bank of England’s policy message remained in focus for UK investors after Thursday’s meeting. The Bank left rates unchanged at 3.75%, but its warning that inflation posed a greater risk than weaker growth led traders to price in roughly a 70% chance of a quarter-point rate rise by April.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 closed 1.51% lower on Friday at 6,506.48, its weakest finish since September. The Nasdaq ended Friday down 2.01% at 21,647.61, leaving it nearly 10% below its record closing high from 29 October, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.96% to 45,577.47.
Among major US stocks, several of the largest technology names came under pressure on Friday. Nvidia and Tesla each closed more than 3% lower, while Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Microsoft all finished about 2% down.
Super Micro Computer saw its shares tumble 33% on Friday after three people linked to the AI server maker were charged with smuggling at least $2.5 billion of AI technology to China.
FedEx closed almost 1% higher on Friday after giving upbeat forecasts and saying global demand was holding steady despite geopolitical tension. Reuters also noted that Dell rose on the day, contrasting with the sharp fall in Super Micro Computer.
Forex & Commodities
Early on Monday, the US dollar moved higher as demand for defensive assets picked up. The dollar index rose to 99.83, while the euro fell to $1.153, sterling slipped to $1.329, and the Japanese yen weakened to 159.6 per dollar.
The Australian dollar also moved lower early on Monday, falling to $0.6956 against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar dropped to $0.5793. In Japan, the move in the yen drew official attention, with currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura saying the government stood ready to respond to foreign-exchange volatility as the currency edged back towards 160 per dollar.
Gold came under heavy pressure on Monday morning. Spot gold fell to $4,226 per ounce, its weakest level of 2026 so far, extending the recent run of losses after last week’s sharp sell-off.
Other precious metals also moved lower early on Monday. Silver traded at $61.76 per ounce, platinum fell to $1,749 per ounce, and palladium dropped to $1,331 per ounce.
Oil prices were volatile in early Monday trade. Brent crude rose to $112.8 a barrel, while US WTI crude traded at $98.75, after both contracts had been more than $1 lower earlier in the session.
The latest energy news remained focused on supply disruption and official warnings. Reuters reported that Washington temporarily waived sanctions on Iranian oil at sea, while the International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol said the crisis was more severe than the oil shocks of the 1970s, and Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields developed by foreign oil companies.
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