Sports Blog 26/03/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers, Friday 27th to Sunday 29th March 2015

After a long break, European international football kicks into gear this weekend, with all the home nations in action.
 

England are looking to continue their strong run of form when they face Lithuania at 7.45pm on ITV. After a woeful World Cup England have looked like a different side since the start of the new season and, despite an admittedly soft qualifying group, are unbeaten in 6 games. Even more impressively they have managed 3 clean sheets in 4 qualifiers with 11 goals scored, conceding only one. If a Wayne Rooney start is a given, with the England captain scoring 7 goals in his last 8 internationals,  then the other striking spot is up for debate. There has been a lot of focus on the Premier League’s new star man Harry Kane; with 29 goals in all competitions for Tottenham this season, he is seen as England’s bright young hope but Roy Hodgson has commented that Kane isn’t guaranteed to start. Danny Welbeck, in form for Arsenal and with 4 goals in 4 qualifiers, will be hoping to steal some of the limelight back from his North London rival.

Lithuania are 4th in the group but level on 6 points with Slovenia and Switzerland. They managed to beat San Marino and Estonia, but suffered a 4-0 loss against the Swiss and a 2-0 defeat to Slovenia, with their last friendly match seeing a goalless draw against Ukraine. Largely full of players unknown over here in the UK, with only former Leeds, and current Rangers, centre back Marius Zaliukas likely to ring a bell for English fans on Friday night. Unsurprisingly given Lithuania’s minnow status and the form England managed to strike before Christmas, our Spreadex traders have the home side at an England/Lithuania Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 2.45-2.65 with a Total Goals spread of 3.15-3.35.

Saturday night then sees Wales take on Israel, surprisingly one of the final 4 all-wins nations, alongside England, Czech Republic and Slovakia. Wales have had a strong qualifying season so far, unbeaten but dropping points with draws against Bosnia-Herzegovina and Belgium. With Israel above them, it is Belgium who pose the biggest threat to Wales’ qualifying position; the Belgians have a game in hand on 5 points to Wales’ 8, so the Welsh will want a win tonight in order to both leap-frog Israel and hold the strong Belgian side at bay. Obviously the main focus of the Welsh side will be Gareth Bale; Bale has been having a tough time at Madrid of late, with the Spanish media being fairly merciless in their criticisms of the World’s Most Expensive Player. A strong performance against Israel will be exactly what he needs to regain the confidence that has been damaged in the past few weeks.



In their three games Israel have managed to beat Cyprus, Andorra and Bosnia-Herzegovina; however, realistically it is only the latter that would have posed much threat, and they face their biggest challenges with Saturday’s game against Wales and Tuesday’s visit from Belgium. With the expanded Euro 2016 championship allowing more teams than ever into the tournament, dropped points against both these sides won’t necessarily damage Israel’s chances of qualifying, as long as they then maintain their form against Group B’s lesser sides. Despite the presence of a world-beater like Bale, Israel’s winning streak has caused our traders to give the edge to the home side at a narrow Israel/Wales Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.35-0.55 with a Total Goals quote of 2.15-2.35.

Sunday is a bumper day for home nation teams; first up is a Finnish trip to Northern Ireland, with both sides hoping to escape from a tricky Group F. Northern Ireland have gotten off to an impressive start in their qualifying campaign, with a hard-earned 2-1 victory over Hungary, a 2-0 win over former European champions Greece and a as expected 2-0 win over the Faroe Islands only being marred by a loss to group leaders Romania. This leaves Northern Ireland second in the group on 9 points, and the chance of finally qualifying for an international competition after unlucky misses in the past few tournaments.



Traditionally you would expect the Finnish side to be, on paper, better than Northern Ireland. However, they have had a disappointing start to their qualification push with losses to Romania and Hungary and a draw against Greece, following an opening 3-1 victory against the Faroe Islands (who incidentally aren’t bottom of the group. That honour goes to Greece.) With the fight for the top three increasingly narrow between Romania, Hungary and Northern Ireland, a win on Sunday is a must if Finland want to stand a realistic chance of qualifying. Due to Northern Ireland losing their past two games, the game is just too close to call and Spreadex are offering a choice Northern Ireland/Finland spread betting quote of -0.1-0.1.

We then turn our attentions to what looks like the Group of Death in the Euro 2016 qualifying campaign. Group D contains Poland, Germany, Scotland and the Republic of Ireland alongside Georgia and Gibraltar, and has the tightest race for a qualifying spot. Poland, surprisingly, sit on top with 10 points, whilst Germany, Scotland and Ireland duke it out on 7 points apiece. Scotland have the easier of the two home nation games in this group on Sunday, facing whipping boys Gibraltar. Gibraltar have failed to score in all four qualifying games, whilst shipping 21 goals. Ireland and Poland both got 7 against the minnows, whilst Germany got 4; even Georgia managed to put 3 past them.

Scotland’s game on Sunday, then, is theirs to lose. An unlucky loss to Germany in the opening game gave way to wins against Georgia and Ireland, and an impressive draw against Poland, with Scotland being the only team to take any points off the group leaders. With an especially high Scotland/Gibraltar Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 4.7-5 alongside a similarly high Total Goals spread of 4.95-5.25, Sunday’s game is likely not a case of if Scotland win, but how many will Scotland win by?

If Scotland have the easiest tie of the group, then Ireland have what has turned out to be the toughest. Poland have so far held onto the top of the table, with an impressive 2-0 win over rivals Germany cementing their serious intentions for Euro 2016. Bar the 2-2 draw against Scotland, Poland have kept clean sheets in all three other games; whilst this is hardly surprising against Georgia and Gibraltar, to keep out the current World Cup champions places Poland as one of the best teams in qualifying so far.

The pressure is on for Ireland. Wins for Scotland and Germany, something that should be par for the course, will put them on 10 points; if Ireland can defeat Poland, then there will be a four-way tie at the top of Group D. Yet if Ireland fail to get anything against the Poles, then they will begin to fall away from the pack. They had a nice run out against Gibraltar, as everyone else has, and an injury time goal from John O’Shea meant they drew against Germany. However, Ireland only narrowly beat Georgia and lost against Scotland in a tense affair at Celtic Park, meaning they haven’t been as convincing as their home nation rival. Yet our traders have faith in Ireland’s home advantage, giving them the slightest of edges at a Goal Supremacy spread of 0-0.2, with a low Total Goals spread of 2.05-2.22.