Sports Blog 27/06/2017: European U21 Championship Semi-Final Preview – England U21 vs Germany U21, Tuesday 27th June 2017

Will England U21 reach their first European Championship final since 2009 by beating Germany on Tuesday?

Aidy Boothroyd’s boys gradually improved as the group stages went on. A limp goalless draw against defending champions Sweden – who are now out after mustering just 2 points from their 3 games – and a relatively unconvincing, if hard fought, victory over Slovakia left England with a sort-of must win final game against Poland.



The hosts couldn’t muster much of anything last Thursday, eventually succumbing to a 3-0 loss following goals from Demarai Gray, Jacob Murphy and Lewis Baker, the latter scoring an 82nd minute penalty after a second yellow for Polish defender Jan Bednarek. That meant England topped Group A with 7 points, behind only Spain’s unbeaten 9 points in Group B – unsurprisingly the Spaniards are favourite for the competition as a whole, with an Outright Index spread of 63-66 alongside a fixed odds price of 6/5.

Not that winning the group has been much benefit to England in terms of who they’ve drawn in the knockouts, though in a tournament that goes straight to the semis a soft route arguably doesn’t exist. Germany – who are at an Outright Index spread of 51-54 to England’s 43-46 – had an easy breezy time of it in their first 2 games, beating the Czech Republic 2-0 before a 2nd half goal glut gave them a 3-0 win over Denmark.

Yet they came unstuck in their group-closer, unable to overcome a first half strike from Italy’s Federico Bernadeschi. With both teams on 6 points – Italy had lost 3-1 to the Czechs – the Italians took 1st place thanks to their head-to-head record, meaning Germany only narrowly scraped through as the best-ranked 2nd place side, and even that was only on goal difference.

Nevertheless it seems like they still have the edge over the Young Lions, with Spreadex offering a Germany U21/England U21 Goal Supremacy spread of 0.05-0.25 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.45-2.65. If Boothroyd’s front line can improve, however – the likes of Tammy Abraham and Cauley Woodrow, at Super Mega PGMs of 21-26 and 16-20 respectively, are yet to score – England may still stand a chance.