Market Analysis
Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 28/09/26
Tuesday 29 September
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:30 | 
|
RBA Cash Rate |
|
4.35% | 4.60% | 4.60% |
| 09:30 | 
|
Money Supply M4 | -0.3% | 0.4% | ||
| 10:00 | 
|
Business Climate |
|
-0.22 | -0.06 | |
| 10:00 |
|
Economic Sentiment |
|
98.4 | 99.0 | 97.9 |
| 10:00 | 
|
PPI Year on Year |
|
7.8% | 10.9% | |
| 10:00 |
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
2.4% | 2.4% | |
| 10:00 |
|
Services Sentiment |
|
5.8 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| 10:00 |
|
Industrial Sentiment |
|
-5.3 | -4.7 | -3.8 |
| 10:00 |
|
Consumer Confidence |
|
-16.5 | -16.5 | -16.5 |
| 13:30 | 
|
GDP Month on Month |
|
0.3% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| 15:00 | 
|
Consumer Confidence |
|
89.4 | 89.2 | 81.9 |
Wednesday 30 September
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:50 | 
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
4.0% | 3.3% | +2.7% |
| 00:50 |
|
Industrial Production Prelim | -0.2% | 1.7% | -1.7% | |
| 02:30 | 
|
PMI Manufacturing (China) |
|
49.8 | 50.1 | 50.1 |
| 07:00 | 
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
-2.5% | 0.1% | -0.4% |
| 07:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month |
|
-3.4% | 1.5% | +1.3% |
| 07:00 |
|
GDP Final Quarter on Quarter |
|
0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 07:00 |
|
GDP Final Year on Year | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 07:00 |
|
Current Account |
|
-22.134Bln GB | -24.700Bln GB | -19.932Bln GB |
| 07:45 | 
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
1.1% | +1.0% | |
| 08:55 |
|
Unemployment Change (sa) |
|
4k | 1k | 12k |
| 08:55 |
|
Unemployment Rate (sa) |
|
6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| 09:00 | 
|
ZEW Investor Sentiment | 12.1 | 2.6 | ||
| 09:00 |
|
Consumer Confidence | 94.5 | 94.0 | 91.2 | |
| 13:00 |
|
CPI Final Month on Month | 0.2% | 0.50% | 0.60% | |
| 13:15 |
|
ADP employment report |
|
38k | 70k | 90k |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Price Index Year on Year |
|
3.7% | 3.7% | +3.4% |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Core Price Index Month on Month |
|
0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 13:30 |
|
GDP Deflator |
|
6.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% |
| 13:30 |
|
Personal Spending Real Month on Month |
|
0.0% | +0.6% | |
| 13:30 |
|
GDP Final |
|
1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year |
|
3.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Price Index Month on Month |
|
0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 13:30 |
|
Personal Income Month on Month |
|
0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 13:30 |
|
Corporate Profits |
|
8.2% | 7.7% | |
| 15:00 |
|
Dallas Fed PCE |
|
2.2% | 1.9% | |
| 15:30 |
|
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 2.969Mln | -0.264Mln | 0.922Mln |
Thursday 01 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:50 |
|
Tankan Big Manufacturers Index |
|
22 | 25 | 24 |
| 00:50 |
|
Tankan Big Non-Manufacturers Index |
|
37 | 36 | 35 |
| 01:30 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 54.1 | 54.1 | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
0.2% | -0.2% | |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
1.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| 08:45 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 49.6 | 50.0 | 50.4 | |
| 08:50 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 50.3 | 50.3 | 50.6 | |
| 08:55 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 53.8 | 53.8 | 53.9 | |
| 09:00 |
|
Unemployment Rate | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | |
| 09:00 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 52.7 | 52.7 | 52.9 | |
| 09:30 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 52.0 | 52.0 | 51.9 | |
| 10:00 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| 14:30 |
|
PMI Manufacturing | 53.0 | 51.5 | ||
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
|
54.6 | 55.0 | 54.5 |
Friday 02 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| 09:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) |
|
0.80% | +0.5% | |
| 09:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) |
|
-0.40% | +0.3% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Non-Farm Payrolls |
|
162k | 90k | 29k |
| 13:30 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
4.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| 15:00 |
|
Factory Orders |
|
0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Monday 05 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 |
|
Consumer Confidence |
|
35.5 | ||
| 08:45 |
|
PMI Services | 55.2 | 54.6 | ||
| 08:50 |
|
PMI Services | 51.4 | 51.4 | ||
| 08:55 |
|
PMI Services | 52.9 | 52.9 | ||
| 09:00 |
|
PMI Services | 53.0 | 53.0 | ||
| 09:00 |
|
PMI Composite | 53.1 | 53.1 | ||
| 09:30 |
|
PMI Services | 51.7 | 51.7 | ||
| 10:00 |
|
PPI Year on Year |
|
5.8% | 8.1% | |
| 10:00 |
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
1.6% | 1.9% | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
|
55.4 | 55.0 | |
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders |
|
60.9 | ||
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Prices Paid |
|
72.6 | ||
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Business Activity |
|
61.7 | ||
| 15:00 |
|
ISM Non Manufacturing Employment |
|
47.8 |
Tuesday 06 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 |
|
Consumer Sentiment |
|
-5.2% | ||
| 07:45 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month | -0.4% | 0.3% | ||
| 10:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 10:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month |
|
-0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-88.6Bln US | -102.0Bln US | |
| 13:30 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
0.77Bln CA | 1.70Bln CA |
Wednesday 07 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index UK (Halifax) |
|
-0.2% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month |
|
-1.1% | 0.5% | |
| 07:45 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-6.669Bln EU | ||
| 15:30 |
|
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | 0.922Mln |
Thursday 08 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
21.3Bln EU | 19.0Bln EU |
Friday 09 October
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month (sa) |
|
0.7% | 0.0% | |
| 09:00 |
|
Industrial Production Year on Year (wda) |
|
0.0% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
6.4% | 6.5% |
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