Brent Slips as Trump Announces Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire

Summary

Brent slipped to around $103 in choppy trading after President Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, which surprised Kyiv and lacked confirmation from Moscow. Asian shares were mostly lower while US and European stock futures edged higher, with a Japan holiday and partial US holiday thinning trade. The dollar eased slightly and gold nudged up. Indian banks sought clarity on the RBI’s latest rupee-defence measures, with the rupee expected to rally.

Equities

The FTSE 100 rose 1% to 10,552.05 on Friday, recovering from a volatile week as UK government bond yields retreated from multi-decade highs. The index gained 0.9% over the week, while the FTSE 250 climbed 1.1% on Friday to finish the week 0.1% higher.

Telecoms stocks fell sharply after SpaceX agreed to acquire a nationwide portfolio of low-band spectrum licences, paving the way for Starlink Mobile to compete more directly with established operators. Vodafone, Airtel Africa and BT Group closed between 2.4% and 6.3% lower on Friday, making them the FTSE 100’s weakest performers. Airtel Money also fell 5.6%, closing below its offer price in a subdued market debut following an oversubscribed initial public offering.

On the FTSE 250, SSP Group fell 4% on Friday after the Upper Crust owner forecast annual operating profit slightly below its previous expectations. Morgan Advanced Materials rose 9.4% after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the semiconductor components supplier and raised its price target, citing the potential sale of its Thermal Products division and increased exposure to higher-margin aerospace and defence markets.

US stocks closed higher on Friday, October 9, extending their weekly gains ahead of the start of third-quarter earnings season and upcoming inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.83% to 51,654.95, the S&P 500 gained 0.59% to 7,811.51 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.64% to 27,366.17.

Telecoms shares came under pressure following the SpaceX deal, with T-Mobile US, AT&T and Verizon falling between 8.8% and 13.3% on Friday. Apple dropped 1.1% after reports that it had asked some suppliers to reduce production of components for its iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models amid rising memory chip costs and concerns about consumer demand.

Humana jumped 11.6% on Friday after US government data showed that 95% of its members in Medicare Advantage plans had received ratings of four stars or higher for 2027. Investors are also preparing for results from major US banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, due next week.

Forex & Commodities

The US dollar held near an 18-month high early on Monday, with the dollar index slightly lower at 102.2. The euro edged up to $1.121 after recording its fifth consecutive weekly decline, as concerns about France’s public finances and political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 presidential election continued to weigh on the currency. Sterling rose to $1.325, while the dollar fell against the yen to 158.2. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were little changed at $0.6982 and $0.5608, respectively.

The Indian rupee rose to 95.80 per dollar after the central bank introduced measures to ease pressure on the currency by redirecting oil companies’ dollar purchases away from the spot market. The South Korean won also strengthened, reaching a two-year high of 1,334 per dollar.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,198 per ounce early on Monday, having reached its highest level since October 2 earlier in the session. A softer dollar and lower oil prices supported the metal as investors awaited US inflation figures. Markets were pricing in a 17% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in October and an 86% chance of a rise by December.

Brent crude fell 0.1% to $104.6 a barrel early on Monday, while US West Texas Intermediate dropped 0.5% to $91.36. Prices declined as US President Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, raising expectations of increased Russian energy supplies. However, escalating Middle East tensions continued to support oil above $100, following Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and reports of two tanker attacks over the weekend near Oman and the Strait of Hormuz.