UK Stock Risers Ahead of Q1 GDP

Starmer manages to hold on amid mounting pressure to resign, while UK stocks wobble ahead of Q1 GDP figures, with analysts worried that a fiscal shift could endanger the country's fragile recovery.

Top FTSE 100 Risers Over Last Week

1. Fresnillo (FRES) +17%
2. Airtel Africa (AAF) +16%
3. Endeavour Mining (EDV) +13%
4. Antofagasta (ANTO) +11%
5. Compass Group (CPG) +11%
6. Anglo American (AAL) +9%
7. International Consolidated Airlines (IAG) +9%
8. British American Tobacco (BATS) +8%
9. Rio Tinto (RIO) +7%
10. BT Group (BT.A) +7%

FTSE 100 Wobbles on Starmer Ahead of Q1 GDP

The premier UK stock index is only cautiously higher this week after dropping last week as investors' focus on political drama ahead of data releases keeps any gains capped. Pressure continues to mount on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down, with four Cabinet members resigning so far to put pressure on him. Several Labour figures have thrown their hat in the ring as potential candidates to replace him. The timing is a bit awkward, as King Charles is scheduled to deliver his Speech from the Throne on Wednesday, setting out the government's priorities. A government that might be replaced soon if the Labour base has its way. Markets are already drawing back in anticipation that a less financially-friendly, more left-leaning Chancellor replaces Rachel Reeves, with gilt yields already rising to levels not seen since 1998 and surpassing the "mini-budget" disaster.

Reportedly, even JPMorgan is considering not proceeding with a £3.0 billion investment in the UK if Starmer gets replaced. Strategists note that Starmer's unpopularity is based on issues like immigration, which has propelled Reform to pole position in any potential election, and that a leftward shift will not fix Labour's polling. Starmer has so far been adamant about staying in office until the next election, despite reports that more than 81 MPs have called for his resignation, enough to trigger a leadership challenge. It is possible that the PM could get a bit of support from an unlikely source on Thursday: UK Q1 GDP. If it outperforms, it could bolster the argument that his policies are working, but a miss could also drag on his prospects.

UK Q1 GDP is anticipated to jump to 0.6% from 0.1% in the final quarter of last year, despite March monthly GDP turning negative at -0.2% from +0.5% in February. A quick look at the top performers over the last week shows a preponderance of mining stocks, which is explained by record-high commodity prices, including copper and precious metals needed for AI infrastructure.

Fresnillo, Endeavour Rising on Silver

Several factors have coincided to support the materials sectors, with miners outperforming over the last week. China's economic outlook has improved as its economy remains resilient despite higher energy costs, and the prospect of a Trump-Xi meeting this week is easing the trade conflict between the world's two largest economies. Copper prices have risen to a record high, but attention is also turning to silver. The precious white metal has gained amid demand for AI infrastructure buildout and solar panel production, although it is still below records set earlier this year. Fresnillo, with its large silver production, has led gains, along with the Canadian silver name, Endeavour Mining.

Airtel Africa Up on Data, Takeover Possibility

The African telecom company has been experiencing strong growth for several quarters, with analysts confident that it will continue to grow amid strong demand for data plans in its key markets. In its most recent earnings report, it said profits doubled compared with last year and forecast similar growth for 2026. The share price got a boost in recent days after press reports that its parent company, Bharti Airtel, will hold a board meeting this week to consider a possible consolidation or an outright acquisition of subsidiaries like Airtel Africa.

FTSE 100 Bottoms Out Meets, Resistance at Middle VWAP

Despite rising since potentially bottoming out at 10150, the UK’s benchmark index has met resistance at the middle VWAP, though the bands are contracting, which hints at an imminent breakout. Moving past it, the next major resistance lies at 10500 if 10360 gives way to bulls. On the flip side, losing 10170 – the lower VWAP – would expose the 10K handle, changing the longer-term potential pennant formation.

Source: SpreadEX | Daily Chart