Top Forex & CFD Movers Last Month

The most traded assets last month showed a sea of green, from Bitcoin to stocks to currencies. But it all came at the expense of one notable decliner: the US dollar. Can the trend reverse in September?

Notable CFD and Forex Rises and Fallers Over Last 30 Days

Risers

1. Bitcoin, +21%
2. Silver, +17%
3. Platinum, +14%
4. Gold, +13%
5. Gasoline, +5%
6. Nasdaq, +5%
7. S&P 500, +4%

Fallers

1. VIX, +21%
2. USD, -2%
3. 30-year bond, -0.17%

Dollar Weakness, Everyone's Gain

The large concentration of assets in the green can be explained by a quick look at some of the top falling assets and how they are priced. The dollar has been the worst-performing major currency over the last month, due to a combination of factors. Weaker economic data, such as the surprise negative NFP print at the start of the month, followed by the Treasury intervening in the bond market, has weakened the greenback. The drop in the 30-year bond is notable, since yields move opposite bond prices. The sell-off in long-term US debt came amid a drop in economic growth and the government's debt rising to over $40 trillion with no end to budget deficits in sight.

Investors are growing increasingly concerned about US fiscal policy and are looking for other assets to buy. This provides a double effect, particularly for traditional safe havens such as gold. If the value of the dollar goes down, then the asset priced in dollars rises. On top of that, there has been a massive increase in funds flowing into dollar alternatives, such as gold, silver and, notably, bitcoin. Over the last week, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have seen the largest inflows, with $7 billion following US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announcement to double the government's buyback of long-term debt.

What Happened to the War?

Just as much as what assets are on the list is important to suss out what the market is doing, so are the notable absences, such as petroleum. As the US and Iran trade rhetoric and Bessent threaten economic war, actual shooting has not erupted, leaving crude prices fairly stable and investors looking elsewhere. Brent is still above pre-war levels, but there haven't been any major risk events over the last month to push it substantially in either direction.

Meanwhile, reports suggest that a significant amount of oil is being shipped out of the Strait, just not officially or in a way that's easily tracked. Analysts suggest that the UAE has restored its pre-war oil capacity through "dark" shipments and rerouting through pipelines. Earlier in the month, both OPEC and the IEA cut their demand outlooks, saying that the oil market might enter surplus next year, which further weighed on crude prices. While the supply situation seems to be normalising, the US still faces structural problems exacerbated by the global reorientation of the energy market as a result of the war. This has left gasoline and heating oil prices higher, as a lack of refining means the US has to import distillates at higher prices despite being a growing net oil exporter.

The Tech Trade Trundles On

The Nasdaq was the best performer of the major global indices, despite recent weakness. That's because the major surge seen during the second half of earnings season put the index in pole position, largely thanks to gains in tech stocks. In fact, the two stocks that had the biggest impact on equity performance this season were Alphabet and Amazon.

On the tech front, the good news seems to be continuing, after Nvidia's earnings post-close on Wednesday are expected to help push the Nasdaq higher. The leading AI company beat lofty earnings expectations and forecast higher growth than the market was expecting. Meanwhile, falling bond yields have helped support higher-valuation stocks, like tech, after core PCE inflation was largely unchanged, giving the Fed no new reasons to hike.