Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 03/11/25

Monday 03 November

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.3%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
Industrial Production Month on Month   -0.7% 0.1%
PMI Manufacturing   49.0 49.3 49.9
PMI Manufacturing   48.3 48.3 48.8
PMI Manufacturing   49.6 49.6 49.6
PMI Manufacturing   50.0 50.0 50.0
PMI Manufacturing   49.6 49.6 49.7
Durable Goods   0.2%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.4%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.9% 2.9%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.4%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.8%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
Durable Goods   0.2%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
PMI Manufacturing   47.7 49.6
ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart 49.1 49.5 48.7
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln

Tuesday 04 November

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
PMI Manufacturing   48.3 48.2
RBA Cash Rate RBA Cash Rate Chart 3.60% 3.60% 3.6%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.3%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.9% 2.9%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.4%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.4%
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.8%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
Durable Goods   0.2%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -6.32Bln CA
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln

Wednesday 05 November

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.3%
Industrial Production Month on Month   -0.7% 0.1% +0.8%
PMI Services   52.5 53.0 54.0
PMI Services   47.1 47.1 48.0
PMI Services   54.5 54.5 54.6
PMI Services   52.6 52.6 53.0
Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) Chart 0.50% +0.5%
PMI Composite   52.2 52.2 52.5
Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) Chart -0.10% -0.5%
PMI Services   51.1 51.1 52.3
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart -0.6% -0.1% -0.2%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart -0.3% 0.0% -0.1%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.9% 2.9%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.4%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.4%
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.8%
ADP employment report ADP employment report Chart -32k 28k 42k
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
Durable Goods   0.2%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -6.32Bln CA
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
ISM Non Manufacturing Business Activity ISM Non Manufacturing Business Activity Chart 49.9 54.3
ISM Non Manufacturing Prices Paid ISM Non Manufacturing Prices Paid Chart 69.4 70.0
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln
ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders Chart 50.4 56.2
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Chart 50.0 50.8 52.4
ISM Non Manufacturing Employment ISM Non Manufacturing Employment Chart 47.2 48.2
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   -6.858Mln 0.603Mln 5.202Mln

Thursday 06 November

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart -4.3% 3.0% +1.3%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.3%
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.2% -0.1%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
BoE Rate Decision BoE Rate Decision Chart 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
MPC Vote For Rate Cut   2 3 4
MPC Vote For Rate Unchanged   7 6 5
MPC Vote For Rate Hike   0 0 0
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.4%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.4%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.9% 2.9%
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.8%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -6.32Bln CA
CPI Month on Month (sa) CPI Month on Month (sa) Chart 0.3%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
CPI Year on Year (nsa) CPI Year on Year (nsa) Chart 3.0%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
Durable Goods   0.2%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln

Friday 07 November

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
House Price Index UK (Halifax) House Price Index UK (Halifax) Chart -0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.3%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart 17.2Bln EU 16.8Bln EU +15.3Bln EU
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -5.530Bln EU -6.58Bln EU
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.9% 2.9%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.4%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.4%
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.8%
CPI Year on Year (nsa) CPI Year on Year (nsa) Chart 3.0% 3.0%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
CPI Month on Month (sa) CPI Month on Month (sa) Chart 0.3% 0.2%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -6.32Bln CA
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 7.1% 7.1% 6.9%
Durable Goods   0.2%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln

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