Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 05/01/26

Monday 05 January

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
PMI Manufacturing   49.7 50.0
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 0.6%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart -0.4%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -1.310Bln EU
Money Supply M4   -0.2% 0.8%
ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart 48.2 48.4 47.9
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2%

Tuesday 06 January

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart -0.4%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 0.6%
PMI Services   55.0 54.0 51.5
PMI Services   50.2 50.2 50.1
PMI Services   52.6 52.6 52.7
PMI Composite   51.9 51.9 51.5
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -1.310Bln EU
PMI Services   52.6 52.6 52.4
PMI Services   52.1 52.1 51.4
CPI Final Month on Month   -0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2%
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 1.9%

Wednesday 07 January

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart -0.3% 0.2% -0.6%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart -0.4%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 0.6%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 0.9% 0.9% 1.1%
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 89 90 90
Unemployment Rate (sa) Unemployment Rate (sa) Chart 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%
Unemployment Change (sa) Unemployment Change (sa) Chart 1k 5k 3k
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -1.310Bln EU
ADP employment report ADP employment report Chart -32k 47k 41k
ISM Non Manufacturing Prices Paid ISM Non Manufacturing Prices Paid Chart 65.4 64.3
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Chart 52.6 52.3 54.4
ISM Non Manufacturing Employment ISM Non Manufacturing Employment Chart 48.9 52.0
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart 0.2% -1.2% -1.3%
ISM Non Manufacturing Business Activity ISM Non Manufacturing Business Activity Chart 54.5 56.0
ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders Chart 52.9 57.9
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   -1.934Mln 0.447Mln -3.832Mln
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 1.9%

Thursday 08 January

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 37.5 37.2
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 0.6%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart -0.4%
House Price Index UK (Halifax) House Price Index UK (Halifax) Chart 0.0% 0.2% -0.6%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -3.920Bln EU -4.170Bln EU
Unemployment Rate   6.0% 5.7%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -1.310Bln EU
Business Climate Business Climate Chart -0.66 -0.56
Economic Sentiment Economic Sentiment Chart 97.0 97.0 96.7
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 6.4% 6.4% 6.3%
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart -0.5% -1.9% -1.7%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.2% 0.5%
Industrial Sentiment Industrial Sentiment Chart -9.3 -9.1 -9.0
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart -14.6 -14.6 -13.1
Services Sentiment Services Sentiment Chart 5.7 5.9 5.6
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -52.8Bln US -58.9Bln US -29.4Bln US
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart 0.15Bln CA -1.36Bln CA -0.58Bln CA
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 1.9%

Friday 09 January

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart -2.2% -2.0% -1.9%
CPI Month on Month (China) CPI Month on Month (China) Chart -0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart -0.4%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 1.8% -0.4% 0.8%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart 16.9Bln EU 16.5Bln EU 13.1Bln EU
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 0.6%
Industrial Production Month on Month   0.2% 0.0% -0.1%
Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) Chart 0.50% 0.50%
Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) Chart 1.30% 1.30%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -1.310Bln EU
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 1.5% 1.6% 2.3%
Non-Farm Payrolls Non-Farm Payrolls Chart 56K 66K 50K
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 6.5% 6.6%
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 4.5% 4.5% 4.4%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.306Mln 1.325Mln 1.246Mln
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 1.9%

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