Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 11/08/25


Monday 11 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.6%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
CPI Final Month on Month   -1.0% -1.0% -1.0%
CPI Final Year on Year   1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart 0.776Bln EU -0.069Bln EU

Tuesday 12 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Retail Sales (Office for National Stats) Retail Sales (Office for National Stats) Chart 2.7% +1.8%
RBA Cash Rate RBA Cash Rate Chart 3.85% 3.60% 3.60%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
Claimant Count Unemployment Change Claimant Count Unemployment Change Chart 25.9k -6.2k
Average Weekly Earnings 3 Month Year on Year Average Weekly Earnings 3 Month Year on Year Chart 5.0% 4.7% 4.6%
Unemployment Rate (ILO) Unemployment Rate (ILO) Chart 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.6%
ZEW Economic sentiment ZEW Economic sentiment Chart 52.7 39.8 34.7
ZEW Current Conditions ZEW Current Conditions Chart -59.5 -65.0 -68.6
CPI Month on Month (sa) CPI Month on Month (sa) Chart 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
CPI Year on Year (nsa) CPI Year on Year (nsa) Chart 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%

Wednesday 13 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
CPI Final Year on Year CPI Final Year on Year Chart 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.6%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   -3.029Mln -0.275Mln 3.036Mln

Thursday 14 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 4.3% 4.2% +4.2%
Industrial Production Year on Year Industrial Production Year on Year Chart -0.3% -0.3% 0.2%
Trade Balance Non-EU Trade Balance Non-EU Chart -9.318Bln GB -10.783Bln GB
Manufacturing Output Year on Year Manufacturing Output Year on Year Chart 0.3% -0.9% 0.0%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -21.688Bln GB -19.400Bln GB -22.156Bln GB
Manufacturing Output Month on Month Manufacturing Output Month on Month Chart -1.0% 0.5% 0.5%
GDP Prelim Year on Year   1.3% 1.0% 1.2%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart -0.9% 0.2% 0.7%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.6%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.7% 0.1% 0.3%
CPI Final Month on Month CPI Final Month on Month Chart 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
CPI Final Year on Year CPI Final Year on Year Chart 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
GDP Flash estimate Year on Year   1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
Industrial Production Year on Year Industrial Production Year on Year Chart 3.7% 1.7% +0.2%
Industrial Production Month on Month   1.7% -1.0% -1.3%
GDP Flash Estimate Quarter on Quarter GDP Flash Estimate Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Weekly Jobless Claims Weekly Jobless Claims Chart 226k 228k 224k
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.3% 2.5% 3.3%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart 0.0% 0.2% 0.9%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart 0.0% 0.2% 0.9%

Friday 15 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
GDP Quarter on Quarter   0.0% 0.1% 0.3%
Retail Sales Retail Sales Chart 4.8% 4.6% 3.7%
Industrial Production Revised Industrial Production Revised Chart 1.7% 2.1%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.6%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.4%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.5% 0.3% 0.3%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.5% 0.5%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.3% 0.0% -0.1%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%

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