Market Analysis
Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 15/12/25
Monday 15 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:00 | 
|
Retail Sales |
|
2.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| 02:00 |
|
Retail Sales |
|
2.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| 07:00 | 
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
0.3% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
1.8% | ||
| 10:00 | 
|
Industrial Production Year on Year |
|
1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% |
| 10:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 10:00 |
|
Industrial Production Month on Month | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 10:00 |
|
Industrial Production Year on Year |
|
1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% |
| 13:15 | 
|
House Starts Annualized |
|
232.8k | 250.0k | 254.1k |
| 13:15 |
|
House Starts Annualized |
|
232.8k | 250.0k | 254.1k |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Boc Core Month on Month |
|
0.6% | -0.1% | |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Month on Month |
|
0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Month on Month |
|
0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Year on Year |
|
2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI BoC Core Year on Year |
|
2.9% | 2.9% | |
| 13:30 | 
|
Housing Starts |
|
1.307Mln | 1.320Mln | |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Boc Core Month on Month |
|
0.6% | -0.1% | |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI BoC Core Year on Year |
|
2.9% | 2.9% | |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Year on Year |
|
2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| 15:00 |
|
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month |
|
0.800Mln | 0.709Mln | |
| 23:30 | 
|
Consumer Sentiment |
|
12.8% | -9.0% |
Tuesday 16 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
1.8% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
0.3% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
Unemployment Rate (ILO) |
|
5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| 07:00 |
|
Claimant Count Unemployment Change |
|
29.0k | 20.1k | |
| 07:00 |
|
Average Weekly Earnings 3 Month Year on Year |
|
4.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% |
| 09:00 | 
|
CPI Final Month on Month | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | |
| 09:00 |
|
CPI Final Year on Year | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 10:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
-0.042Bln EU | -1.310Bln EU | |
| 10:00 |
|
Trade Balance |
|
19.4Bln EU | 18.4Bln EU | |
| 10:00 | 
|
ZEW Economic sentiment |
|
38.5 | 38.7 | 45.8 |
| 10:00 |
|
ZEW Current Conditions |
|
-78.7 | -80.0 | -81.0 |
| 13:29 |
|
Non-Farm Payrolls |
|
108K | -105K | |
| 13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Housing Starts |
|
1.307Mln | 1.320Mln | |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Price Index Year on Year |
|
2.8% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Personal Spending Real Month on Month |
|
0.0% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year |
|
2.8% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Core Price Index Month on Month |
|
0.2% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Personal Income Month on Month |
|
0.4% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Price Index Month on Month |
|
0.3% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Non-Farm Payrolls |
|
-105K | 51K | 64K |
| 13:30 |
|
Unemployment Rate |
|
4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% |
| 15:00 |
|
Business Inventories Month on Month |
|
0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 15:00 |
|
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month |
|
0.800Mln | 0.709Mln | |
| 23:50 | 
|
Trade Balance |
|
-231.8Bln JP | 71.2Bln JP | 322.2Bln JP |
| 23:50 |
|
Exports Year on Year |
|
3.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% |
| 23:50 |
|
Imports Year on Year |
|
0.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
Wednesday 17 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 |
|
RPI Year on Year |
|
4.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) |
|
1.8% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
PPI Core Month on Month (nsa) |
|
0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 07:00 |
|
PPI Core Year on Year (nsa) |
|
3.5% | 3.5% | |
| 07:00 |
|
CPI Year on Year |
|
3.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% |
| 07:00 |
|
CPI Month on Month |
|
0.4% | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| 07:00 |
|
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) |
|
0.3% | ||
| 07:00 |
|
RPI Month on Month |
|
0.3% | 0.0% | -0.4% |
| 09:00 |
|
IFO Business Climate Expectations |
|
90.6 | 90.5 | 89.7 |
| 10:00 |
|
CPI Final Month on Month |
|
0.2% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| 10:00 |
|
CPI Final Year on Year |
|
2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| 13:30 |
|
Personal Spending Real Month on Month |
|
0.0% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Personal Income Month on Month |
|
0.4% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Housing Starts |
|
1.307Mln | 1.320Mln | |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year |
|
2.8% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Core Price Index Month on Month |
|
0.2% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Price Index Month on Month |
|
0.3% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Price Index Year on Year |
|
2.8% | ||
| 15:00 |
|
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month |
|
0.800Mln | 0.709Mln | |
| 15:30 |
|
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -1.812Mln | -1.066Mln | -1.274Mln |
Thursday 18 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Cut | 4 | 5 | 5 | |
| 12:00 |
|
BoE Rate Decision |
|
4.00% | 3.75% | 3.75% |
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Hike | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12:00 |
|
MPC Vote For Rate Unchanged | 5 | 4 | 4 | |
| 13:15 |
|
ECB Rate Decision |
|
2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Year on Year (nsa) |
|
3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% |
| 13:30 |
|
CPI Month on Month (sa) |
|
0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13:30 |
|
Personal Income Month on Month |
|
0.4% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Price Index Year on Year |
|
2.8% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Personal Spending Real Month on Month |
|
0.0% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Philadelphia Fed Business Index |
|
-1.7 | 3.0 | -10.2 |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Price Index Month on Month |
|
0.3% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Core Price Index Month on Month |
|
0.2% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Housing Starts |
|
1.307Mln | 1.320Mln | |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year |
|
2.8% | ||
| 15:00 |
|
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month |
|
0.800Mln | 0.709Mln | |
| 23:30 |
|
CPI Overall Nationwide |
|
3.0% | 2.9% | |
| 23:30 |
|
CPI Core Nationwide Year on Year |
|
3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
Friday 19 December
| Time | Region | Indicator | Previous | Expected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 |
|
GFK Consumer Confidence |
|
-19 | -18 | -17 |
| 00:01 |
|
GFK Consumer Confidence |
|
-19 | -18 | -17 |
| 07:00 |
|
GFK Consumer Confidence |
|
-23.2 | -23.2 | -26.9 |
| 07:00 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month |
|
-1.1% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| 07:00 |
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 07:00 |
|
PPI Year on Year |
|
-1.8% | -2.2% | -2.3% |
| 07:00 |
|
GFK Consumer Confidence |
|
-23.2 | -23.2 | -26.9 |
| 07:00 |
|
Retail Sales Year on Year |
|
0.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| 07:45 | 
|
PPI Month on Month |
|
0.0% | 1.1% | |
| 09:00 |
|
Consumer Confidence | 95.0 | 96.0 | 96.6 | |
| 09:00 |
|
Consumer Confidence | 95.0 | 96.0 | 96.6 | |
| 13:30 |
|
Personal Spending Real Month on Month |
|
0.0% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Core Price Index Month on Month |
|
0.2% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Retail Sales Month on Month |
|
-0.7% | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year |
|
2.8% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Personal Income Month on Month |
|
0.4% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
Housing Starts |
|
1.307Mln | 1.320Mln | |
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Price Index Month on Month |
|
0.3% | ||
| 13:30 |
|
PCE Price Index Year on Year |
|
2.8% | ||
| 15:00 |
|
Existing Home Sales |
|
4.10Mln | 4.15Mln | 4.13Mln |
| 15:00 |
|
Univ Michigan Sentiment |
|
53.3 | 53.4 | 52.9 |
| 15:00 |
|
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month |
|
0.800Mln | 0.709Mln | |
| 15:00 |
|
Univ Michigan Conditions |
|
50.7 | 50.4 | |
| 15:00 |
|
Dallas Fed PCE |
|
1.9% | ||
| 15:00 |
|
Univ Michigan Expectation |
|
55.0 | 54.6 |
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