Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 16/12/24

Monday 16 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Retail Sales Retail Sales Chart 4.8% 4.6% 3.0%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 3.7%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 1.2%
ZEW Investor Sentiment   -12.4
CPI Final Month on Month   0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
CPI Final Year on Year   1.6% 1.6% 1.5%
House Starts Annualized House Starts Annualized Chart 240.8k 245.1k 262.4k
Consumer Sentiment Consumer Sentiment Chart 5.3% -2.0%

Tuesday 17 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Unemployment Rate (ILO) Unemployment Rate (ILO) Chart 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 1.2%
Average Weekly Earnings 3 Month Year on Year Average Weekly Earnings 3 Month Year on Year Chart 4.3% 4.6% 5.2%
Claimant Count Unemployment Change Claimant Count Unemployment Change Chart 26.7k +0.3k
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 3.7%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -1.175Bln EU -0.660Bln EU
ZEW Investor Sentiment   -12.4
IFO Business Climate Expectations IFO Business Climate Expectations Chart 87.2 87.5 84.4
ZEW Current Conditions ZEW Current Conditions Chart -91.4 -93.0 -93.1
ZEW Economic sentiment ZEW Economic sentiment Chart 7.4 6.5 15.7
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart 12.5Bln EU +6.8Bln EU
CPI Boc Core Month on Month CPI Boc Core Month on Month Chart 0.4% -0.1%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.4% 0.5% 0.7%
CPI Month on Month CPI Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
CPI Year on Year CPI Year on Year Chart 2.0% 2.0% 1.9%
CPI BoC Core Year on Year CPI BoC Core Year on Year Chart 1.7% +1.6%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart -0.3% 0.3% -0.1%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Imports Year on Year Imports Year on Year Chart 0.4% 1.0% -3.8%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -461.2Bln JP -688.9Bln JP -117.6Bln JP
Exports Year on Year Exports Year on Year Chart 3.1% 2.8% 3.8%

Wednesday 18 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
RPI Month on Month RPI Month on Month Chart 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
CPI Year on Year CPI Year on Year Chart 2.3% 2.6% +2.6%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 3.7%
RPI Year on Year RPI Year on Year Chart 3.4% 3.7% 3.6%
PPI Core Year on Year (nsa) PPI Core Year on Year (nsa) Chart 1.7% 1.6%
CPI Month on Month CPI Month on Month Chart 0.6% 0.1% +0.1%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 1.2%
PPI Core Month on Month (nsa) PPI Core Month on Month (nsa) Chart 0.3% 0.0%
ZEW Investor Sentiment   -12.4
CPI Final Year on Year CPI Final Year on Year Chart 2.3% 2.3% 2.2%
CPI Final Month on Month CPI Final Month on Month Chart 0.3% -0.3% -0.3%
Current Account Balance Current Account Balance Chart -266.8Bln US -284.0Bln US -310.9Bln US
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.311Mln 1.343Mln 1.289Mln
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   -1.425Mln -1.635Mln -0.934Mln
FOMC Rate Decision   4.625% 4.375% 4.25 - 4.50%

Thursday 19 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 1.2%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 3.7%
GFK Consumer Confidence GFK Consumer Confidence Chart -23.3 -22.5 -21.3
ZEW Investor Sentiment   -12.4
MPC Vote For Rate Hike   0 0 0
MPC Vote For Rate Unchanged   1 8 6
MPC Vote For Rate Cut   8 1 3
BoE Rate Decision BoE Rate Decision Chart 4.75% 4.75% 4.75%
Corporate Profits Corporate Profits Chart 0.0% -0.4%
Weekly Jobless Claims Weekly Jobless Claims Chart 242k 230k 220k
Philadelphia Fed Business Index Philadelphia Fed Business Index Chart -5.5 3.0 -16.4
GDP Final GDP Final Chart 2.8% 2.8% 3.1%
GDP Deflator GDP Deflator Chart 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Existing Home Sales Existing Home Sales Chart 3.96Mln 4.07Mln 4.15Mln
CPI Core Nationwide Year on Year CPI Core Nationwide Year on Year Chart 2.3% 2.6% 2.7%
CPI Overall Nationwide CPI Overall Nationwide Chart 2.3% 2.9%

Friday 20 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Public Sector Net Borrowing   17.354Bln GB 11.249Bln GB
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.3% +0.5%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 2.4% 0.8% 0.5%
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart -1.1% -0.3% +0.1%
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart -0.7% 0.5% 0.2%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart 0.9% 3.2%
ZEW Investor Sentiment   -12.4
Consumer Confidence   96.6 97.0 96.3
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart -2.8% -0.5%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart 0.7% 1.2%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%
PCE Price Index Month on Month PCE Price Index Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.3%
PCE Core Price Index Month on Month PCE Core Price Index Month on Month Chart 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
PCE Price Index Year on Year PCE Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.3% 2.5% 2.4%
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.7% 0.6%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.8% 2.9% 2.8%
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.3% 1.8%
Univ Michigan Sentiment Univ Michigan Sentiment Chart 74.0 74.0 74.0
Univ Michigan Conditions Univ Michigan Conditions Chart 77.7 75.1
Univ Michigan Expectation Univ Michigan Expectation Chart 71.6 73.3

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