Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 18/12/23

Monday 18 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
IFO Business Climate Expectations IFO Business Climate Expectations Chart 85.2 85.7 84.3

Tuesday 19 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
CPI Final Year on Year CPI Final Year on Year Chart 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
CPI Final Month on Month CPI Final Month on Month Chart 0.1% -0.5% -0.6%
Industrial PPI Year on Year Industrial PPI Year on Year Chart -2.7% -2.3%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.372Mln 1.360Mln 1.560Mln
CPI Month on Month CPI Month on Month Chart 0.1% -0.1% 0.1%
CPI BoC Core Year on Year CPI BoC Core Year on Year Chart 2.7% +2.8%
CPI Year on Year CPI Year on Year Chart 3.1% 2.9% 3.1%
CPI Boc Core Month on Month CPI Boc Core Month on Month Chart 0.3% +0.1%
Industrial PPI Month on Month Industrial PPI Month on Month Chart -1.0% -0.6% -0.4%
Exports Year on Year Exports Year on Year Chart 1.6% 1.5% -0.2%
Imports Year on Year Imports Year on Year Chart -12.5% -8.6% -11.9%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -662.5Bln JP -962.4Bln JP -776.9Bln JP

Wednesday 20 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
RPI Month on Month RPI Month on Month Chart -0.2% 0.2% -0.1%
GFK Consumer Confidence GFK Consumer Confidence Chart -27.8 -27.0 -25.1
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart -11.0% -7.5% -7.9%
CPI Month on Month CPI Month on Month Chart 0.0% 0.1% -0.2%
PPI Core Month on Month (nsa) PPI Core Month on Month (nsa) Chart 0.1% 0.0%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart -0.1% -0.3% -0.5%
PPI Core Year on Year (nsa) PPI Core Year on Year (nsa) Chart 0.2% 0.2%
RPI Year on Year RPI Year on Year Chart 6.1% 5.7% 5.3%
CPI Year on Year CPI Year on Year Chart 4.6% 4.4% +3.9%
Current Account Balance Current Account Balance Chart -212.1Bln US -196.0Bln US -200.3Bln US
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 102.0 104.0 110.7
Existing Home Sales Existing Home Sales Chart 3.79Mln 3.77Mln 3.82Mln
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   -4.259Mln -2.283Mln 2.909Mln

Thursday 21 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Public Sector Net Borrowing   13.972Bln GB 13.409Bln GB
GDP Deflator GDP Deflator Chart 3.5% 3.6% 3.3%
Weekly Jobless Claims Weekly Jobless Claims Chart 202k 215k 205k
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart 0.6% 0.8% 0.7%
Corporate Profits Corporate Profits Chart 4.1% 3.7%
GDP Final GDP Final Chart 5.2% 5.2% 4.9%
Philadelphia Fed Business Index Philadelphia Fed Business Index Chart -5.9 -3.0 -10.5
CPI Overall Nationwide CPI Overall Nationwide Chart 3.3% +2.8%
CPI Core Nationwide Year on Year CPI Core Nationwide Year on Year Chart 2.9% 2.5% +2.5%

Friday 22 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Current Account Current Account Chart -25.289Bln GB -15.000Bln GB -17.175Bln GB
GDP Final Quarter on Quarter GDP Final Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart -2.7% -1.3% 0.1%
GDP Final Year on Year   0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart -0.3% 0.4% 1.3%
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 87 88 89
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart 0.0% +2.4%
Consumer Confidence   103.6 103.8 106.7
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 3.5% 3.3% +3.2%
Durable Goods   -5.4% 2.2% 5.4%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.4% +0.4%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.2% +0.3%
PCE Core Price Index Month on Month PCE Core Price Index Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.2% +0.1%
GDP Month on Month GDP Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
PCE Price Index Year on Year PCE Price Index Year on Year Chart 3.0% 2.8% +2.6%
PCE Price Index Month on Month PCE Price Index Month on Month Chart 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.7% 1.5%
Univ Michigan Sentiment Univ Michigan Sentiment Chart 69.4 69.4 69.7
Univ Michigan Expectation Univ Michigan Expectation Chart 66.4 67.4
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.679Mln 0.685Mln 0.590Mln
Univ Michigan Conditions Univ Michigan Conditions Chart 74.0 73.3

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