Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 27/01/25

Monday 27 January

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
PMI Manufacturing (China) PMI Manufacturing (China) Chart 50.1 50.1 49.1
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.7% 0.3%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 4.7% 4.3%
IFO Business Climate Expectations IFO Business Climate Expectations Chart 84.4 84.2 84.2
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.664Mln 0.675Mln 0.698Mln

Tuesday 28 January

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 89 90 92
Durable Goods   -1.2% 0.6% -2.2%
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 104.7 105.6 104.1

Wednesday 29 January

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
CPI Quarter on Quarter CPI Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.2% 0.3% +0.2%
CPI Year on Year CPI Year on Year Chart 2.8% 2.5% +2.4%
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 36.2 35.2
GFK Consumer Confidence GFK Consumer Confidence Chart -21.3 -20.0 -22.4
ZEW Investor Sentiment   -20.0 +17.7
Consumer Confidence   96.3 96.0 98.2
BoC Rate Decision   3.25% 3.00% 3.0%
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   -1.017Mln 3.194Mln 3.463Mln
FOMC Rate Decision   4.375% 4.375% 4.25 - 4.50%

Thursday 30 January

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.4% 0.0% -0.1%
GDP Flash Estimate Year on Year GDP Flash Estimate Year on Year Chart 0.1% -0.3% -0.4%
GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter   0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
GDP Flash Estimate Quarter on Quarter GDP Flash Estimate Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.1% -0.1% -0.2%
GDP Prelim Year on Year GDP Prelim Year on Year Chart 0.4% 0.6% 0.5%
Money Supply M4   0.0% 0.1%
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%
Industrial Sentiment Industrial Sentiment Chart -14.1 -13.8 -12.9
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart -14.2 -14.2 -14.2
Unemployment Rate   5.7% 5.7% 6.2%
Services Sentiment Services Sentiment Chart 5.9 6.0 6.6
Business Climate Business Climate Chart -0.91 -0.94
Economic Sentiment Economic Sentiment Chart 93.7 94.1 95.2
ECB Rate Decision ECB Rate Decision Chart 3.15% 2.90% 2.90%
Weekly Jobless Claims Weekly Jobless Claims Chart 223k 220k 207k
Pending Home Sales Month on Month Pending Home Sales Month on Month Chart 2.2% 0.0% -5.5%
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 2.5% 2.5% 2.4%
Industrial Production Prelim   -2.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 2.8% 3.2% +3.7%

Friday 31 January

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart 3.9% +3.7%
PPI Quarter on Quarter PPI Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.9% +0.8%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 2.5% 2.5% +1.8%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 4.7% 4.3% 4.1%
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart -0.6% 0.2% -1.6%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart 3.2% +1.0%
Unemployment Rate (sa) Unemployment Rate (sa) Chart 6.1% 6.2% 6.2%
Unemployment Change (sa) Unemployment Change (sa) Chart 10k 14k 11k
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart -0.5% 1.1%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart 1.2% 0.6%
CPI Final Month on Month   0.5% 0.1% -0.2%
PCE Price Index Year on Year PCE Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.4% 2.6% 2.6%
GDP Month on Month GDP Month on Month Chart 0.3% -0.1% -0.2%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
PCE Core Price Index Month on Month PCE Core Price Index Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.3% 0.4%
PCE Price Index Month on Month PCE Price Index Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 1.8% 2.8%

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