Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 27/10/25

Monday 27 October

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
IFO Business Climate Expectations IFO Business Climate Expectations Chart 89.7 90.0 91.6
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
Durable Goods   0.3%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln

Tuesday 28 October

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
GFK Consumer Confidence GFK Consumer Confidence Chart -22.3 -22.0 -24.1
Consumer Confidence   96.8 97.0 97.6
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 94.2 93.2 94.6
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln

Wednesday 29 October

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
CPI Quarter on Quarter CPI Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.7% 1.1% 1.3%
CPI Year on Year CPI Year on Year Chart 2.1% 3.0% 3.2%
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 35.3 35.8
ZEW Investor Sentiment   -46.4 -7.7
Money Supply M4   0.4% 0.6%
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart 0.2% 1.1%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart -0.6% 0.2%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
BoC Rate Decision   2.50% 2.25%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
Pending Home Sales Month on Month Pending Home Sales Month on Month Chart 4.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   -0.961Mln -0.211Mln -6.858Mln
FOMC Rate Decision   4.125% 3.875% 3.750 - 4.000%

Thursday 30 October

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
Unemployment Change (sa) Unemployment Change (sa) Chart -7k 8k -1k
Unemployment Rate (sa) Unemployment Rate (sa) Chart 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%
Unemployment Change (sa) Unemployment Change (sa) Chart 14k 8k -1k
GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter   -0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
GDP Flash Estimate Quarter on Quarter GDP Flash Estimate Quarter on Quarter Chart -0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
GDP Flash Estimate Year on Year GDP Flash Estimate Year on Year Chart -0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
GDP Prelim Year on Year GDP Prelim Year on Year Chart 0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
Services Sentiment Services Sentiment Chart 3.6 3.8 4.0
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%
Unemployment Rate   6.0% 6.0% 6.1%
Business Climate Business Climate Chart -0.76 -0.46
Economic Sentiment Economic Sentiment Chart 95.5 96.0 96.8
Industrial Sentiment Industrial Sentiment Chart -10.3 -10.0 -8.2
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart -14.2 -14.2 -14.2
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
CPI Final Month on Month   0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
ECB Rate Decision ECB Rate Decision Chart 2.15% 2.15% 2.15%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 2.6% 2.5% 2.6%
Industrial Production Prelim   -1.5% 1.6% 2.2%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart -1.1% 0.7% 0.5%

Friday 31 October

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart 3.4% 3.5%
PPI Quarter on Quarter PPI Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.7% 1.0%
PMI Manufacturing (China) PMI Manufacturing (China) Chart 49.8 49.6 49.0
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.2% 2.3% 2.4%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 1.8% 1.9% 0.2%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.5% 0.0% 0.3%
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart -0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart -0.2% -0.2%
GDP Month on Month GDP Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.0% -0.3%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln

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