Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 28/08/23

Monday 28 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Retail Sales Retail Sales Chart -0.8% 0.3% +0.5%
Retail Sales Retail Sales Chart -0.8% 0.3% +0.5%

Tuesday 29 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 2.5% 2.5% 2.7%
GFK Consumer Confidence GFK Consumer Confidence Chart -24.4 -24.3 -25.5
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 85 85 85
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 117.0 116.0 106.1

Wednesday 30 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 37.1 36.2
Consumer Confidence   106.7 105.6 106.5
ZEW Investor Sentiment   -32.6 -38.6
Money Supply M4   -0.1% -0.5%
Industrial Sentiment Industrial Sentiment Chart -9.4 -9.9 -10.3
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart -16.0 -16.0 -16.0
Economic Sentiment Economic Sentiment Chart 94.5 93.7 93.3
Business Climate Business Climate Chart -0.09 -0.33
Services Sentiment Services Sentiment Chart 5.7 4.2 3.9
CPI Final Month on Month   0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
ADP employment report ADP employment report Chart 324k 195k 177k
Pending Home Sales Month on Month Pending Home Sales Month on Month Chart 0.3% -0.6% +0.9%
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   -6.135Mln -3.267Mln
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   -6.135Mln -3.267Mln -10.584Mln

Thursday 31 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Industrial Production Prelim   2.4% -1.4% -2.0%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 5.9% 5.4% +6.8%
PMI Manufacturing (China) PMI Manufacturing (China) Chart 49.3 49.4 49.7
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart -1.6% -1.0% -2.2%
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart -0.8% 0.3% -0.8%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart -1.1% -0.2%
GDP Detailed Quarter on Quarter   0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Unemployment Change (sa) Unemployment Change (sa) Chart -4k 10k 18k
Unemployment Rate (sa) Unemployment Rate (sa) Chart 5.6% 5.7% 5.7%
Unemployment Rate   7.4% 7.4% 7.6%
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%
PCE Core Price Index Month on Month PCE Core Price Index Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Weekly Jobless Claims Weekly Jobless Claims Chart 230k 235k 228k
PCE Price Index Month on Month PCE Price Index Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 4.1% 4.2% 4.2%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.6%
PCE Price Index Year on Year PCE Price Index Year on Year Chart 3.0% 3.3% 3.3%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Friday 01 September

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
PMI Manufacturing   49.7 49.6
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart -3.8% -4.9% -5.3%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart -0.3% -0.4% -0.8%
PMI Manufacturing   44.5 46.0 45.4
PMI Manufacturing   46.4 46.4 46.0
PMI Manufacturing   39.1 39.1 39.1
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart -5.5% -10.2%
GDP Final Quarter on Quarter GDP Final Quarter on Quarter Chart -0.3% -0.3% -0.4%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart -0.3% -0.1%
PMI Manufacturing   43.7 43.7 43.5
GDP Final Year on Year   0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
PMI Manufacturing   42.5 42.5 43.0
Non-Farm Payrolls Non-Farm Payrolls Chart 187k 170k 187k
GDP Month on Month GDP Month on Month Chart 0.3% -0.2% -0.2%
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 3.5% 3.5% 3.8%
Average Earnings Average Earnings Chart 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
GDP Quarter on Quarter GDP Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.8% 0.0%
GDP Quarter on Quarter Annualised GDP Quarter on Quarter Annualised Chart 3.1% 1.2% -0.2%
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 3.5% 3.5% 3.8%
PMI Manufacturing   49.6 48.0
ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart 46.4 47.0 47.6

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