Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 28/07/25

Tuesday 29 July

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Money Supply M4   0.2% 0.3%
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 93.0 95.0 97.2

Wednesday 30 July

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
CPI Year on Year CPI Year on Year Chart 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
CPI Quarter on Quarter CPI Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%
GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 1.6% 2.3% +4.9%
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart -1.6% 0.5% +1.0%
GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter   0.3% 0.1% -0.1%
GDP Flash Estimate Year on Year GDP Flash Estimate Year on Year Chart -0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
GDP Prelim Year on Year GDP Prelim Year on Year Chart 0.7% 0.6% 0.4%
ZEW Investor Sentiment   -2.1 +2.4
GDP Flash Estimate Quarter on Quarter GDP Flash Estimate Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.4% -0.1% -0.1%
Business Climate Business Climate Chart -0.78 -0.72
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart -14.7 -14.7 -14.7
Services Sentiment Services Sentiment Chart 2.9 3.3 4.1
Industrial Sentiment Industrial Sentiment Chart -12.0 -11.0 -10.4
Economic Sentiment Economic Sentiment Chart 94.0 94.5 95.8
ADP employment report ADP employment report Chart -33k 75k 104k
BoC Rate Decision   2.75% 2.75%
Pending Home Sales Month on Month Pending Home Sales Month on Month Chart 1.8% 0.3% -0.8%
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   -3.169Mln -1.288Mln 7.698Mln
FOMC Rate Decision   4.375% 4.375% 4.25 - 4.50%

Thursday 31 July

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Industrial Production Prelim   -0.1% -0.6% 1.7%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 2.2% 1.8% +2.0%
Retail Sales Retail Sales Chart 0.2% 0.4% +1.2%
PMI Manufacturing (China) PMI Manufacturing (China) Chart 49.7 49.7 49.3
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 34.5 33.7
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart -0.8% -0.2%
Unemployment Rate (sa) Unemployment Rate (sa) Chart 6.3% 6.4% 6.3%
Unemployment Change (sa) Unemployment Change (sa) Chart 11k 15k 2k
Unemployment Rate   6.5% 6.4% 6.3%
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 6.3% 6.3% 6.2%
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart 1.7% 2.5%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart -0.7% 1.5%
CPI Final Month on Month   0.0% 0.2% 0.3%
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart -0.4% 0.2% 0.3%
GDP Month on Month GDP Month on Month Chart -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.7% 2.7% 2.8%
Weekly Jobless Claims Weekly Jobless Claims Chart 217k 224k 218k
PCE Core Price Index Month on Month PCE Core Price Index Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
PCE Price Index Month on Month PCE Price Index Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
PCE Price Index Year on Year PCE Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.3% 2.5% 2.6%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart -0.3% 0.1%
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 2.0% 3.4%

Friday 01 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
PMI Manufacturing   48.8 48.9
PPI Quarter on Quarter PPI Quarter on Quarter Chart 0.9% +0.7%
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart 3.7% +3.4%
Retail Sales Retail Sales Chart 1.2%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.1% 2.1% 2.4%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart -0.8% 0.3% 0.6%
PMI Manufacturing   48.4 49.0 49.8
PMI Manufacturing   48.4 48.4 48.2
PMI Manufacturing   49.2 49.2 49.1
PMI Manufacturing   49.8 49.8 49.8
Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) Chart -0.40% +0.6%
Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) Chart 1.30% +1.0%
PMI Manufacturing   48.2 48.2 48.0
Non-Farm Payrolls Non-Farm Payrolls Chart 147k 110k 73k
Average Earnings Average Earnings Chart 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Non-Farm Payrolls Non-Farm Payrolls Chart -13K 106K 73K
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 4.1% 4.2% 4.2%
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 4.1% 4.2% 4.2%
PMI Manufacturing   45.6 46.1
Univ Michigan Sentiment Univ Michigan Sentiment Chart 61.8 62.0 61.7
ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart 49.0 49.5 48.0
Univ Michigan Conditions Univ Michigan Conditions Chart 66.8 68.0
Univ Michigan Expectation Univ Michigan Expectation Chart 58.6 57.7

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