Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 29/01/24

Monday 29 January

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 2.5% 2.5% 2.4%

Tuesday 30 January

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Retail Sales Retail Sales Chart 2.0% -1.0% -2.7%
GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter Chart -0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
GDP Prelim Year on Year GDP Prelim Year on Year Chart 0.1% 0.3% 0.5%
GDP Flash Estimate Year on Year GDP Flash Estimate Year on Year Chart -0.8% -0.4% -0.4%
GDP Flash Estimate Quarter on Quarter GDP Flash Estimate Quarter on Quarter Chart -0.1% -0.3% -0.3%
GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter   0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
Money Supply M4   -0.1% 0.5%
Business Climate Business Climate Chart -0.45 -0.27 -0.40
Economic Sentiment Economic Sentiment Chart 96.4 96.2 96.2
Services Sentiment Services Sentiment Chart 8.4 8.0 8.8
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart -16.1 -16.1 -16.1
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart -9.5% -16.0%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart 1.5% -0.9%
Industrial Sentiment Industrial Sentiment Chart -9.2 -9.0 -9.4
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 110.7 115.0 114.8
Industrial Production Prelim   -0.9% 2.4% 1.8%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 5.3% 4.7% +2.1%

Wednesday 31 January

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
CPI Quarter on Quarter CPI Quarter on Quarter Chart 1.2% 0.8% +0.6%
CPI Year on Year CPI Year on Year Chart 5.4% 4.3% +4.1%
PMI Manufacturing (China) PMI Manufacturing (China) Chart 49.0 49.2 49.2
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 37.2 38.0
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart -2.5% 0.7% -1.6%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart -1.8% -0.9% -0.2%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart -2.4% -1.7%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.0% 0.1% 0.7%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart 2.4% +0.1%
Unemployment Change (sa) Unemployment Change (sa) Chart 5k 11k -2k
Unemployment Rate (sa) Unemployment Rate (sa) Chart 5.9% 5.9% 5.8%
ZEW Investor Sentiment   -23.7 -19.5
Unemployment Rate   7.5% 7.6% 7.2%
CPI Final Month on Month   0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
ADP employment report ADP employment report Chart 164k 145k 107k
GDP Month on Month GDP Month on Month Chart 0.0% 0.1% +0.2%
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   -9.233Mln -0.217Mln 1.234Mln
FOMC Rate Decision   5.375% 5.375% 5.25 - 5.50%

Thursday 01 February

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
PMI Manufacturing   48.0 48.0
PMI Manufacturing   45.3 47.3 48.5
PMI Manufacturing   43.2 43.2 43.1
PMI Manufacturing   45.4 45.4 45.5
PMI Manufacturing   46.6 46.6 46.6
PMI Manufacturing   47.3 47.3 47.0
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%
BoE Rate Decision BoE Rate Decision Chart 5.25% 5.25%
MPC Vote For Rate Unchanged   6 8 6
MPC Vote For Rate Cut   0 0 1
MPC Vote For Rate Hike   3 1 2
Weekly Jobless Claims Weekly Jobless Claims Chart 214k 212k 224k
PMI Manufacturing   45.4 48.3
ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart 47.4 47.0 49.1

Friday 02 February

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart 3.8% +4.1%
PPI Quarter on Quarter PPI Quarter on Quarter Chart 1.8% +0.9%
Industrial Production Month on Month   0.5% 0.2% +1.1%
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 3.7% 3.8% 3.7%
Average Earnings Average Earnings Chart 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 3.7% 3.8% 3.7%
Non-Farm Payrolls Non-Farm Payrolls Chart 290K 187K 353K
Non-Farm Payrolls Non-Farm Payrolls Chart 216k 180k 353k
Univ Michigan Expectation Univ Michigan Expectation Chart 75.9 77.1
Univ Michigan Conditions Univ Michigan Conditions Chart 83.3 81.9
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart 2.6% 0.2% 0.2%
Univ Michigan Sentiment Univ Michigan Sentiment Chart 78.8 78.9 79.0

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