Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 31/07/23

Monday 31 July

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 5.7% 5.9% +5.9%
Industrial Production Prelim   2.4% 2.0%
PMI Manufacturing (China) PMI Manufacturing (China) Chart 49.0 49.2 49.3
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 36.2 37.1
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.2% -0.8%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart -3.6% -2.7% -1.6%
GDP Prelim Year on Year GDP Prelim Year on Year Chart 1.9% 0.9% 0.6%
GDP Prelim Quarter on Quarter   0.6% 0.0% -0.3%
Money Supply M4   0.2% -0.1%

Tuesday 01 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%
PMI Manufacturing   49.4 49.6
RBA Cash Rate RBA Cash Rate Chart 4.10% 4.35% 4.1%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart -3.5% -3.8% -3.8%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.1% -0.2% -0.2%
PMI Manufacturing   43.8 44.2 44.5
PMI Manufacturing   44.5 44.5 45.1
PMI Manufacturing   38.8 38.8 38.8
Unemployment Rate (sa) Unemployment Rate (sa) Chart 5.7% 5.7% 5.6%
Unemployment Change (sa) Unemployment Change (sa) Chart 28k 20k -4k
Unemployment Rate   7.6% 7.7% 7.4%
PMI Manufacturing   42.7 42.7 42.7
PMI Manufacturing   45.0 45.0 45.3
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 6.5% 6.5% 6.4%
PMI Manufacturing   48.8 49.6
ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing PMI Chart 46.0 46.8 46.4

Wednesday 02 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
ADP employment report ADP employment report Chart 497k 189k 324k
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   -0.600Mln -1.367Mln -17.049Mln

Thursday 03 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Exports Exports Chart 4% -2%
Trade Balance Goods & Services Trade Balance Goods & Services Chart 11791Mln AU 11000Mln AU 11321Mln AU
Imports Imports Chart 2% -4%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart 14.4Bln EU 15.0Bln EU +18.7Bln EU
PMI Services   52.2 52.2 51.5
PMI Services   47.4 47.4 47.1
PMI Services   52.0 52.0 52.3
Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) Retail Sales Month on Month (sa) Chart 0.70% -0.2%
Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) Retail Sales Year on Year (nsa) Chart 3.00% +3.6%
PMI Composite   48.9 48.9 48.6
PMI Services   51.1 51.1 50.9
PMI Services   51.5 51.5 51.5
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart -1.9% -0.2% -0.4%
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart -1.5% -3.1% -3.4%
MPC Vote For Rate Unchanged   2 1 1
MPC Vote For Rate Hike   7 8 8
MPC Vote For Rate Cut   0 0 0
BoE Rate Decision BoE Rate Decision Chart 5.00% 5.25% 5.25%
Weekly Jobless Claims Weekly Jobless Claims Chart 221k 227k 227k
ISM Non Manufacturing Prices Paid ISM Non Manufacturing Prices Paid Chart 54.1 56.8
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Chart 53.9 53.0 52.7
ISM Non Manufacturing Business Activity ISM Non Manufacturing Business Activity Chart 59.2 57.1
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart 0.3% 2.2% 2.3%
ISM Non Manufacturing Employment ISM Non Manufacturing Employment Chart 53.1 50.7
ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders Chart 55.5 55.0

Friday 04 August

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Industrial Production Month on Month   1.2% -0.3% -0.9%
Industrial Production Year on Year (wda) Industrial Production Year on Year (wda) Chart -3.7% -2.0% -0.8%
Industrial Production Month on Month (sa) Industrial Production Month on Month (sa) Chart 1.6% -0.3% +0.5%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart -2.9% -1.7% -1.4%
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart 0.0% 0.2% -0.3%
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 5.4% 5.5% 5.5%
Non-Farm Payrolls Non-Farm Payrolls Chart 209k 200k 187k
Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Chart 3.6% 3.6% 3.5%
Average Earnings Average Earnings Chart 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%

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