US Banks Kick-Off Q3 Earnings Season

Week of 12 October 2026

Bond markets stayed in charge this week. The US 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002 and the UK 30-year gilt yield set a fresh 28-year high, while Brent crude jumped above $105 a barrel as Iran stepped up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed's minutes confirmed most officials expect another hike this year, but traders pushed the timing out to December, and Donald Trump's pledge not to strike Iran before the US midterms calmed nerves on Friday.

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo kick off third-quarter earnings season on Tuesday, with US CPI following on Wednesday. In the UK, August GDP is due on Thursday, BP and Rio Tinto update on Tuesday, and Andrew Bailey leads a run of Bank of England speakers at the IMF meetings in Bangkok.

Week in Review

Gilts set another 28-year high.

The UK 30-year gilt yield peaked at 6.036% on Wednesday, its highest since January 1998 and just above last week's high, while the UK 10-year gilt yield climbed to 5.48%. Both eased back on Thursday and Friday as oil retreated. Catherine Mann, one of three MPC members who voted for a hike in September, said on Tuesday that high inflation had become "embedded in the UK economy", warning of further entrenchment when wage talks pick up early next year. Markets price around an 80% chance of a Bank of England hike on 5 November.

Bailey put the spotlight on the Budget.

Speaking in Istanbul on Thursday, Governor Andrew Bailey called on governments to show credible plans to repair the public finances, saying such commitments "are needed more than ever when these negative shocks occur". He described recent bond market moves as "some way from normal" but said they had not reached the point of stress or illiquidity. The comments land less than three weeks before Chancellor John Healey's 28 October Budget.

Treasuries hit their highest since 2002.

The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.36% on Wednesday before a strong auction pulled it back towards 5.25%. Wednesday's minutes showed all 19 policymakers backed September's hike, with most saying another "would likely be appropriate by year end". Traders now price only around a 20% chance of an October move, leaving December as the favoured meeting, although Christopher Waller and Alberto Musalem both said rates will need to rise again.

Oil jumped as Iran targeted tankers.

Brent crude dipped as low as $97 a barrel on Tuesday as G7 countries released emergency stocks, then rallied 4% on Thursday to above $105 after Iran and the Houthis stepped up attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Hurricane Isaias threatened US Gulf Coast refineries. Prices eased on Friday after Trump said the US would not attack Iran before next month's midterm elections, leaving Brent around $103.50 and up around 1.5% on the week.

UK stocks steadied after their worst week since April.

The FTSE 100 was up almost 1% on the week by Friday afternoon, despite a 0.8% drop on Wednesday as gilt yields spiked. Asia-focused names led that sell-off, with Prudential, Standard Chartered and HSBC all down more than 4%. Tesco jumped as much as 6.5% to 506.8p on Thursday after raising the bottom of its full-year profit guidance to £3.15 billion and lifting its buyback to £950 million. ASOS fell almost 10% on Tuesday after a cyber breach, and Vodafone, BT and Airtel Africa slid on Friday after SpaceX agreed to buy US spectrum licences that could help Starlink Mobile compete with telecoms operators.

Wall Street hit a record before chips cracked.

The S&P 500 set a record high on Tuesday, but chip stocks fell 3.4% on Thursday after a report that OpenAI's revenue was running $20 billion below earlier signals. Micron dropped 4.8%, while Broadcom lost 4.4% and Oracle 5.5% on reports they are lining up heavy financing tied to OpenAI. The Nasdaq 100 was slightly lower on the week and the S&P 500 up around 0.7%. Elsewhere, Brazil's Ibovespa surged 7.7% to a record on Monday after Flávio Bolsonaro edged ahead of President Lula in the first round of the presidential election.

The euro hit a 17-month low.

EUR/USD dropped to around 1.12 on Monday as France's budget crisis pushed the French-German 10-year spread above 140 basis points, its widest since 2012. The US Dollar Index rose to around 102.3 after the Fed minutes, while GBP/USD held in a tight range around 1.32. Gold hit a two-month low of $4,066 an ounce on Wednesday before rebounding towards $4,200 on Friday, and Bitcoin fell around 2% to near $82,500.

Biggest Market Movers

• UKOIL – topped $105 on Thursday

• NATGAS – gained 5%

• EURUSD – hit a 17-month low

• XAUUSD – bounced off a two-month low

• USDX – rose to around 102.3

• UK100 – rose almost 1% after a choppy week

• BTCUSD – fell around 2%

• Tesco (TSCO) – jumped 6.5% through 500p

• ASOS (ASC) – fell almost 10%

• Prudential (PRU) – dropped 4.6% on Wednesday

• Micron (MU) – fell 4.8% on Thursday

• MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) – surged 12.6% on Monday

Top Events in the Week Ahead

Earnings season is here, with the big US banks reporting either side of a US CPI release that could reshape Fed bets, while the UK gets its first look at August growth.

US Bank Earnings

Wall Street's biggest banks open earnings season on Tuesday.

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. Financials are expected to grow earnings around 3% on the year, well behind the almost 30% forecast for the S&P 500 as a whole, with JPMorgan's estimates revised up and Goldman's among the biggest cuts. With long-dated yields at multi-decade highs and the Fed back in hiking mode, investors want to hear how lenders see loan demand, credit quality and the outlook for interest income. ASML on Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday then test the AI trade after this week's chip sell-off.

US CPI

Wednesday's CPI could decide whether the Fed waits until December.

Headline inflation is forecast to rise to 3.6% in September from 3.4%, driven by energy, with core expected at 2.5%. The ISM services prices index hit its highest since July 2022 this week, so a hot reading would put an October hike back in play. The Fed's Beige Book follows later on Wednesday, with PPI and retail sales on Thursday.

UK GDP and Bank of England Speakers

August GDP is expected to show the UK economy shrank.

Thursday's figures are forecast to show a contraction of around 0.3% after 0.4% growth in both June and July, with services the main drag. Bailey speaks in Bangkok early on Friday, while hike voters Megan Greene and Huw Pill speak on Tuesday and Wednesday, giving the MPC's hawks another platform ahead of November's decision.

Other Events and Earnings

In the UK, the BRC retail sales monitor is out on Tuesday, with industrial production and trade figures alongside Thursday's GDP release. Elsewhere, the RBA's minutes and the IMF's World Economic Outlook arrive on Tuesday, when France's National Assembly also begins debating the 2027 budget. China publishes CPI and trade data on Wednesday, Australia's jobs report lands on Thursday, and Friday brings final eurozone CPI and US industrial production.

On earnings, Tuesday is the busiest day in the UK, with BP's third-quarter trading statement, Rio Tinto's operations update, Whitbread half-year results and Bellway full-year results, plus updates from Michael Page and Greencore. Hays reports on Monday and Softcat on Wednesday, Thursday brings Antofagasta, Entain, Mondi, Dunelm and Travis Perkins, and Man Group closes the week on Friday. In the US, UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson report alongside the banks on Tuesday, with BlackRock on Wednesday and Blackstone and Charles Schwab on Thursday.